Opinion A new roadmap for India-Canada ties

The joint statement reveals a carefully calibrated strategy for rebuilding the relationship. It signals a cautious engagement with substantial intent. Both sides have refrained from sweeping, high-stakes declarations, opting instead for a structured “roadmap” across tangible, less politically fraught sectors. The emphasis on “mutual respect for shared democratic values, the rule of law, and a commitment to upholding the principles of sovereignty and territorial integrity” subtly addresses the elephant in the room — India’s security concerns regarding extremist elements operating on Canadian soil.

The intent, however, is substantial, particularly in the economic and technological spheres. The agreement to revive the Canada-India Ministerial Energy Dialogue (CIMED) and focus on LNG, clean technologies, and renewable energy highlights the most logical complementarities and lowest-hanging fruit. Canada’s wealth of natural resources and expertise in clean energy perfectly aligns with India’s surging energy demands and ambitious climate targets.

Similarly, the focus on Artificial Intelligence (AI), digital infrastructure, and education is strategically vital. Canada possesses world-class AI research and, complementarily, India offers a massive, skilled digital talent pool and a burgeoning market. Cooperation here, through renewed S&T committees and research partnerships, offers quick wins that could propel the relationship in other areas like trade and investment, which, despite recent tensions, reached a substantial $23.66 billion in 2024.

The current geopolitical landscape provides a strong external push for this reset, transforming the bilateral engagement from a matter of convenience into an imperative. For both countries, balancing or countering China’s growing regional and global influence is a priority. India is the indispensable anchor of the Indo-Pacific, and Canada’s Indo-Pacific strategy requires a reliable, democratic partner in the region. Deeper security and economic cooperation between Delhi and Ottawa are an implicit counterweight, ensuring diversified supply chains and reinforcing a rules-based order.

Moreover, amidst the global economic uncertainty, especially the spectre of renewed US protectionism under the second Trump term, there is a strong impetus for both nations to diversify their global partnerships. Canada is keen to reduce its economic dependence on the US, and India, committed to an emerging multipolar global order, seeks partners who respect its strategic autonomy. This shared imperative for diversification, coupled with the need to mitigate vulnerabilities from shifting alliances, is the geopolitical lubricant for the current thaw.

While the joint statement’s diplomatic language implies a commitment to address security concerns, Canada’s adherence to its legal processes and India’s demand for decisive action against separatism remain fundamentally difficult to reconcile. Minister Anand’s insistence on restoring Canada’s full diplomatic cohort and maintaining law enforcement dialogue before fully re-engaging on trade deals (like the stalled Early Progress Trade Agreement) underscores the fact that the underlying trust deficit is still being managed, not fully eliminated. This is the crucial political hurdle that must be overcome for the relationship to fully unlock its potential.

The “New Roadmap” envisioned upon Anand’s visit provides the necessary framework for a forward-looking relationship. The potentialities are immense, rooted in complementary economies, the vibrant Indian diaspora in Canada, and shared democratic values. The opportunities lie in critical minerals, clean energy, and the digital economy, sectors that define the future.

Yet, risks persist, primarily the potential for a fresh security incident to derail the fragile trust. The greatest possibility for the India-Canada relationship going forward is that it evolves from a relationship focused on diaspora politics to one anchored in shared strategic interests, making it a critical pillar of the emerging Indo-Pacific architecture. By continuing to engage cautiously on security but substantially on economics and technology, both nations can pave the way for a partnership that serves their national interests and the stability of the global order.

The writer is assistant professor, Centre for the Study of the Americas, School of International Studies, JNU