Opinion Assam’s crackdown on child marriages is driven more by politics than concern for women

Let us begin with some figures. Assam is certainly a high-prevalence state when it comes to underage marriage — after states like Bihar, West Bengal, Rajasthan and Andhra Pradesh. At the same time, there has been a steady decline in the prevalence of underage marriage, according to the most robust data source, the National Family Health Survey (NFHS 3, 4 and 5). The proportion of those who were married before 18 among those in the age group of 20-24 years at the time of the survey, has fallen from 38.6 per cent in 2005-06 to 33.7 per cent in 2015-16, and to 31.8 per cent in 2019-2020. Pregnancies in the age group of 15-19 years have seen parallel decline from 16.4 per cent in 2005-06 to 11.6 per cent in 2019-2020, while fertility rates have dropped dramatically from 2.2 in 2015-16 to below replacement level at 1.9 in 2019-2020.

This is a story of steady decline in underage marriage, with the vast majority of such marriages restricted to the 15-17 age group — just 8 per cent married at or before 14 years. Assam contributes barely 3 per cent to the national total of marriages before the age of 18 — even states like Gujarat contribute more at 4.4 per cent. The one statistic that sets Assam apart, which may explain the sudden adoption of “zero tolerance”, is that of religion. As per NFHS-5, while the proportion of underage marriages among Hindus in Assam at 23.5 per cent is close to the national average (23.2 per cent), the figures for Muslims (45.8 per cent) and Christians (23.8 per cent) are much higher than their respective national averages of 26.4 per cent and 15.2 per cent. All India figures show that early marriage is strongly concentrated amongst the poorest classes, and this is even more so in Assam, with 42 per cent underage marriages in the poorest 20 per cent poverty class. Poverty and minority religious community identity are closely linked — while 51 per cent Muslims are in the poorest poverty class, only 31 per cent Hindus occupy the same.

But the central issue here is the deliberate or thoughtless misreading of cause and effect. India’s most shameful statistics are its maternal mortality rates, and in this Assam is no better than several other states. Maternal mortality is closely associated with anaemia. However, detailed analysis of NFHS data shows quite unambiguously that anaemia is not affected by age at marriage and persists at higher ages as well if economic status is considered. It is poverty — and not early marriage — that causes anaemia; poor women are not magically cured of anaemia if they simply delay their marriages.

Indeed it is possible to go further to argue that poverty causes early marriage, not the other way around. Poor families — in Assam they would be predominantly Muslim, Adivasi, tea garden workers and migrant labour — marry their daughters early to keep costs and dowry payments down, and in hopes of sexual protection. Even small improvements in economic status make them look for better marital alliances at higher ages because they are willing to take on the greater costs and risks involved in waiting.

The biggest obstacles to improving the health of women and their children are access to nutrition and related services. The crackdown and ongoing arrests have generated a climate of extreme vulnerability, fear and mistrust. This includes the local Anganwadi and Asha workers who have reportedly been tasked with providing information on underage marriages though the specifics remain unclear. Fear of arrests will surely discourage families from accessing their services, thus worsening a situation already characterised by poor health and high levels of malnutrition. Criminalisation is also counter-productive in other ways. As reports of people denying existing documentation of age show, increased surveillance will lead to suppression or falsification of information on matters of age and age at the time of marriage.

It is true that empowering women will reduce the need for early marriage. But there are no shortcuts or quick-fix solutions for women’s empowerment. The only meaningful ways are through better nutrition, better health services, relevant and affordable education, and the chance of decent job opportunities to make later marriage a genuine option.

There are two statistics in NFHS-5 that ought to be a much greater source of worry for the Assam government and for all who care for girls and women. Women’s job opportunities in the state declined sharply over the previous decade, and the sex ratio at birth in urban Assam is worryingly low at 916 girls per 1,000 boys. In the face of such facts, why is “child marriage” becoming the state’s number one law-and-order problem? Putting husbands, fathers or priests in jail will not empower women or stop underage marriage. It will only make women even more vulnerable, encourage concealment, and strengthen prejudices against minorities and the poor.

The writer was formerly at the Centre for Women’s Development Studies, New Delhi. With inputs from Risha Singh, research scholar at JNU