Twenty-five years of Left rule in Tripura collapsed in front of a saffron juggernaut as BJP stormed the "Red Fort" to secure a two-thirds majority in the 60-member House. Of the 59 constituencies where votes were cast on February 18, the BJP and its ally, Indigenous People’s Front of Tripura (IPFT), grabbed 43, ending Manik Sarkar’s four-term stint as chief minister. The BJP, which had secured 1.54 per cent votes in the 2013 assembly polls in the state, got over 43 per cent of the votes in the 51 seats it contested this time. The CPM, which had 48.11 per cent votes in 2013, managed 42.6 per cent. But the Left Front was trounced in the numbers game, dropping from 50 to 16 seats. The Congress was decimated — it had 10 seats and 36.53 per cent vote share in 2013, but drew a blank this time. The reason behind BJP's surge was perhaps well comprehended in Prime Minister Narendra Modi's words. “This journey from ‘Shunya’ to ‘Shikhar’ has been made possible due to a solid development agenda and the strength of our organisation… The historic victory in Tripura is as much an ideological one. It is a win for democracy over brute force and intimidation… People do not have the time or respect for negative, disruptive and disconnected politics of any kind,” Modi said in a series of tweets. ALSO READ: How Tripura was won Tripura BJP chief Biplab Kumar Deb, who won from Banamalipur, is tipped to be the next Chief Minister. Apart from mobilising thousands of workers, of both the BJP and the RSS, the BJP focus this election was on government employees, women, youth and the tribals. Here are the factors that played out in the Tripura elections: BJP's focus on strengthening grassroots Over the past two years, RSS insiders say, the Sangh work in Tripura was intensified. From around 60 shakhas at the time of the 2014 elections, the RSS now has 265 shakhas in the state. As the RSS worked in the background, the BJP put its organisation in place to match the Left Front’s formidable cadre base. Party leaders say over 50,000 BJP and RSS members were hands-on in the state. They took out morchas and led andolans from mandal to state level — including Yuva Morchas (by the BJP’s youth wing), Mahila Morcha (women’s wing), to morchas for SCs, STs, OBCs, minorities and farmers. ‘Vistaraks’ were appointed per constituency to ensure there was no infighting among mandals and local leaders, while more were brought in from other states to look after Tripura’s tea estates. Another idea was ‘Train Samparaks’, who would travel on trains wearing Modi-T-shirts and hand out BJP pamphlets to passengers. They would talk to passengers, take down their phone numbers, ask them about their problems, from water issues to gas cylinder difficulties, and pass the same along to party workers in Agartala. Snatching Congress votes The BJP snatched half the CPM’s seats and all but one of the 10 seats held by the Congress. From an average 19,768 votes in 2013 — it had polled 1.97 lakh votes in these 10 seats —the Congress totalled just 16,064 Saturday. In terms of vote share, the Congress dropped from 47 per cent to 4 per cent in these 10 seats. These 10 seats provide an illustration of how the BJP, in snatching the state from the Left Front, relegated the Left to the Congress’s former position of principal Opposition. The rise and rise of Biplab Deb Biplab Deb could very well have been termed an ‘outsider’ in the state’s political landscape, but for the fact that he was born and brought up in south Tripura’s Udaipur. After graduating from Tripura University in the year 1999, Deb trained under RSS veteran KN Govindacharya and caught the attention of Sunil Deodhar, the BJP’s Tripura in-charge. Deb was made the president of the state BJP and in a very short period he caught the imagination of the electorate, displaying impressive oratory skills and an overall pleasing personality. In Deb, the anti-left constituency finally found an alternative to the formidable four-term chief minister Manik Sarkar. Demand for Twipraland and tie-up with IPFT With the Indigenous People’s Front of Tripura (IPFT) winning eight of nine seats it contested in the Tripura Assembly elections, the demand for Twipraland will certainly get further impetus. Moreover, party president N C Debbarma stated after his victory from Takarjala seat that the demand for a separate state for Tripura’s tribals is “very much still on the table”. Apprehensive that the demand for a separate state would alienate the majority Bengali electorate in the state, the BJP had earlier made IPFT scuttle its demand. A former director of All India Radio, Debbarma had revived the IPFT, founded in 1997, with a clear objective in 2009: a separate state of “Twipraland”. It contested the polls subsequently but failed to make any impact. RELATED REPORT: Reading Tripura verdict in Kerala: no threat now, lessons galore The Pay Commission and unemployment If the issue of unemployment was the fulcrum of the BJP’s call for ‘Chalo Paltai’ in the state, it made its point over and over again by highlighting the non-implementation of the 7th Pay Commission in Tripura. In a state which still pays salaries to government workers on the basis of the 4th Pay Commission, this issue found prominent space in the BJP’s Vision Document for the state, its poll platform as well as speeches of its leaders from Prime Minister Narendra Modi and national president Amit Shah to Finance Minister Arun Jaitley. Decisive tribal vote BJP was clear that Tripura could not be won without the tribal vote, the Left’s lifeblood in the state. A month before the elections, it tied up with the IPFT (Indigenous People’s Front of Tripura). On Saturday, the desertion of the CPM by tribals was evident. While the party has never won less than 18 of the 20 tribal seats in the state, this time it got only two, Jolaibarri and Manu. Among the CPM leaders who stood defeated was Deputy Chief Minister and tribal leader Aghore Debbarman, who lost from the Left’s strongest bastion, Asharambari, by a significant margin of 7,000 votes. Where does it leave the Left Front? With Tripura marking the first direct electoral contest between the political Left and Right, the defeat also meant loss for the CPM in its perception battle against ideological rival BJP. Kerala, the only state where the CPM is in power now, alternates between it and the Congress. The only two other states where it remains strong, West Bengal and Tripura, are now both out of its control. While the role of money and muscle power in the BJP’s success was included in the CPM’s official reaction, party leaders said in private that it could not ignore the situation on the ground, and that the party had lost connect with the youth. Party leaders also said that while the CPM touted Sarkar’s integrity, the same could not be said about other leaders down the line.
