Will Paswan’s MLAs do a Maya on him?

Lok Janashakti Party (LJP) chief Ram Vilas Paswan may have successfully reasserted his primacy as the unquestioned Dalit leader in Bihar, but will he also face the same fate as Mayawati when it comes to the loyalties of non-Dalit MLAs in the party? The LJP won 29 seats in the polls, but almost 16 victorious MLAs are from the dominant Bhumihar and Rajput castes, besides two Yadav MLAs, with the rest coming from more backward castes and scheduled castes.

Mayawati has already learnt the bitter lesson of desertion from her upper caste candidates when 40 BSP MLAs in Uttar Pradesh quit the party to join her rival Mulayam Singh Yadav, and bring him to power in the state. While many among the 40 MLAs included Muslims, OBCs and MBCs, almost all the upper caste BSP MLAs deserted Mayawati after she was tossed out of power, when the BJP pulled back its support to her government.

Paswan now runs several risks with this high number of upper caste MLAs in his party. First, the upper caste MLAs would have a natural affiliation with the NDA coalition partners — BJP and JD(U) — and will put tremendous pressure on their leader, not to have any pact with their pet caste hate, Laloo Yadav and the RJD. Secondly, this would leave only two options for Paswan — Presdident’s Rule or a non-BJP, non-RJD coalition.

While Paswan is safe from his party breaking up, as his MLAs will face the heavy hand of the anti-defection law, it is also a fact that the required two-third majority for splitting up requires only 19 MLAs. However, there is no threat of the upper castes breaking away for 19 MLAs will not get the NDA to power as it still does not touch the magic number of the required majority of 121 MLAs.