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This is an archive article published on February 22, 2005

Who will fly off with the Oscars?

While analysts of the Roman Catholic church have been parsing Vatican statements this month about the real state of the pope’s health, ...

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While analysts of the Roman Catholic church have been parsing Vatican statements this month about the real state of the pope’s health, halfway around the world a similar sort of sifting of the tea leaves has been under way in Hollywood. In sharp contrast to 2004, when Lord of the Rings won all 11 Oscars for which it was nominated, there are no obvious winners among this year’s celluloid papabili.

The Oscars, of which this year’s round is due to be announced on February 27, were never an independent measure of excellence. The members of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences, who confer them, work in the industry, and their tastes favour those who make them feel good about themselves.

As always in Hollywood, the money comes first. A “best film” has to be one that the public endorses, confirming the judgement of those who made it. In recent years, that has meant a movie that grosses $100m in North America alone. None of this year’s best-picture nominees has grossed that much so far. That said, though, winning an Oscar can do wonders for a straggler. Chicago, which took best-picture in 2002, picked up 41 per cent of its eventual box-office takings after winning the trophy. Academy members will be looking to this year’s victor to do something similar…

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As best film, the front-runner with 11 nominations is The Aviator, Martin Scorsese’s biopic of the film-and-aviation tycoon, Howard Hughes. Rarely has the most nominated film failed to clinch best picture. In a way, that is understandable. All-round excellence surely betokens quality, even if other films may be judged to be superior in the individual categories. The Aviator certainly has the right subject — the father of modern aviation and the father, with his 1930 film Hell’s Angels, of course, of modern action movies. Who, from Tinseltown’s perspective, could be more relevant to the 21st century?

What is it up against? Sideways is the kind of semi-independent film that Hollywood likes to acknowledge with a nomination — and then pass up for a best-film award. Finding Neverland, about how J.M. Barrie came to write Peter Pan, wins brownie points for integrity, while Ray, about Ray Charles, may have to settle for the best-actor prize only. That leaves, as fifth contender for best picture, Million Dollar Baby, Clint Eastwood’s boxing flick. It is a fine film, but would Hollywood be happy saluting a picture that is also a vote for euthanasia?

Extracted from an article in ‘The Economist’, February 19 issue

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