When public opinion forced a disaster

Some more unsolicited advice from a nation suddenly brimming with strategic and foreign affairs expertise after the hijacking of flight IC-814? Just another declaration of solidarity from bleary-eyed citizens compulsively switching channels for the very latest on the Kandahar standoff? No. Merely a sampling of the frenzied collective soul-searching the mainstream American press indulged in during another hostage crisis — the 444-day captivity of American embassy staff in Tehran 20 years ago.

With India entering the seventh day of its first "live on television"airport vigil, it is getting a taste of dealing with crises in real time. If this results in viewers sitting in front of their TV sets through long hours of quietude, yet perpetually quivering with the expectation that something is about to happen, it also presents leaders with the dilemma of planning strategic response without being swayed by instantly formed, yet wildly fluctuating, public opinion.

And as Lloyd DeMause, Director of New York’s Insitute of Psychohistory, New York, illustrates in Reagan’s America, sizing up public sentiment as a lodestar is an exercise marked by peril. It was a lesson Jimmy Carter, whose ascent to presidency was supposed to be imbued with a resoluteness to put behind the Nixon years, learnt the hard way.

As the US economy took a turn for the better in the early Carter years, a "free floating anxiety" that the good times could not last was projected onto the peanut farmer, who in turn tried to rally his country by appealing to patriotism, by calling for “a littlesacrifice from everyone” which would lead to the “rebirth of the American spirit”.

But how was this sacrifice to be engineered? Writes deMause: “In June 1979, Newsweek had reported that a White House advisor had told them that Zbigniew Brzezinski had said a "small war" might be useful to prove the President’s toughness. Obviously, if Iran grabbed American hostages, this might lead to a "small war" which would restore Carter’s failing potency and divert the country’s rage onto an "enemy" abroad.

Though no one said it aloud, the unconscious shared fantasy grew that American embassy personnel would have to be designated as the sacrificial victims. The only problem was to find a way to get Iran to act, and soon.

React Iran did on November 4 by taking 66 American embassy staff hostage in Tehran when the US allowed the exiled Shah to undergo medical treatment on its soil. The sale of Iranian flags in the US multiplied as the country rallied around him in a collective orgy of flag-burning,indignation and counselling. A hostage’s wife just had to tie a yellow ribbon around a tree and the country bonded anew to the strains of "Tie a yellow ribbon round the ole oak tree".

Predictably, Carter’s approval ratings soared, as did he on the wings of this sudden national endorsement. He clearly appreciated the diplomatic route to resolve the crisis, but deMause claims Americans were itching for a display of determined action — "the sacrifice had to be played out". Aware that military action would put a majority of hostage lives in danger, Carter at first refused to carry out the sacrifice but gave in soon enough after Washington Post found that a majority favoured military action even if it meant the hostages’ death.

On April 25, Operation Eagle Claim began as eight helicopters took off from an aircraft carrier in the Arabian Sea on a 600-mile journey to Desert One where they were to be joined by six transport aircraft. Only to fall like nine pins. One developed rotor blade trouble,another’s pilot was blinded in a sandstorm. At Desert One, another helicopter was struck with hydraulic failure, signalling a botched up operation as at least six helicopters were critical for the rescue.

The unaccounted for sandstorm raged on, and as the refueling began for the return journey, three more were stranded, with one colliding with a transport plane, killing eight servicemen. Their colleagues promptly scampered away, leaving behind equipment and top-secret mission plans.

It was not quite the sacrifice Carter had in mind when he precipitated the hostage crisis to mould public opinion his favour, public opinion which eventually set him on the path to disaster.