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With US encouragement to 8220;colour8221; revolutions in neighbouring Ukraine and Georgia, Putin8217;s world tilted on its axis Stanislav Belkovsky Kremlin analyst to Newsweek

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For all the outdoorsy camaraderie at American President George W. Bush8217;s Kennebunkport, Maine family home recently, there is no denying that his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin, is charting a more aggressive and assertive stance in bilateral dealings. This shift was stated most clearly this February in Munich when he spoke about the 8220;hyperpower8221; flouting international law. NEWSWEEK8217;s Europe cover 8216;Putin8217;s dark descent8217;, July 23 asks: 8220;What changed? How did Putin go from Bush8217;s friend and ally to being an assertive nationalist, befriending and arming America8217;s enemies?8221; Russian experts say it began with American failure to heed Russian objects to the invasion of Iraq in 2003, and then the situation got considerably worse with American encroachment in the Baltics, Central Asia, Caucasus and Ukraine, considered by Moscow its rightful sphere of influence. With US encouragement to 8220;colour8221; revolutions in neighbouring Ukraine and Georgia, 8220;Putin8217;s world tilted on its axis,8221; says Kremlin-connected analyst Stanislav Belkovsky. 8220;It was a profound shock; Putin8217;s circle became convinced that they could be the next regime to fall.8221; Soaring energy prices have also given Putin a sense of economic strength.

Less noticed, there has been a change in neighbouring Western Europe. ECONOMIST8217;s cover leader 8216;Can Europe8217;s recovery last?8217;, July 12 says the region is shedding the last decade8217;s image of being a 8220;sclerotic under-achiever: a slow-growing, work-shy and ageing continent that is destined to be left behind by the United States, China and India8221;. Helping this image makeover are the new political leaderships of Germany, Italy, France and Britain. And the economic indicators: 8220;Since the end of 2006 euro-area GDP has outpaced America8217;s: in 2007, it should grow by 2.7, ahead of both America and Japan. The euro is at new highs against the dollar and the yen. Unemployment has fallen to 7, the lowest since the euro started life in 1999.8221; So what8217;s the worry? European leaders may be wrongly setting the path ahead. 8220;The euro area8217;s troubles are not macroeconomic in nature. Rather they are microeconomic, reflecting the failure of several countries to reform rigid labour markets and overly regulated product markets. These countries have been suffering not from too much competition, but from too little: for too long, too many of their workers and producers have been sheltered from competition, fostering high costs and inefficiency.8221;

And, presumably more to mark an anniversary, TIME July 23 asks, 8220;Can Asia withstand another currency crisis?8221; Certainly, lessons have been learnt from 1997, but: 8220;By being voracious buyers of US government debt, the region is allowing America to live beyond its means. At some point the US consumer is going to run out of steam and Asia is going to be hurt. China is especially vulnerable to being whipsawed. If the US economy slows modestly, China and the region can handle the adjustment without too much pain, especially if they take the stiff medicine of currency appreciation and shift to a policy of increased domestic demand. The danger will occur if the US slumps badly, hurting Chinese exporters so much that they can no longer repay their loans. That8217;s when we8217;ll find out whether the hundreds of billions of dollars pumped into the Chinese banking system have bought the stability Chinese leaders expect.8221;

Meanwhile: August8217;s VANITY FAIR carries an essay 8216;The History Boys8217; on the Bush administration by the late David Halberstam. BUSINESSWEEK July 23 investigates the economic problems that hold China from becoming a superpower. THE NEW STATESMAN July 12 reports on the 8220;cold civil war8221; in Chavez8217;s Venezuela.

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