Why India is lowering temperature ahead of Copenhagen summit

While the apparent climbdowns from its long-held positions have opened the government to accusations that India was giving in to intense international pressure,it is also becoming evident that the country was silently preparing itself to deal with the post-Copenhagen situation.

Experts believe the calculated shifts that the government has made in the last few months are being dictated by realpolitik and a more realistic understanding of the evolving situation. It is widely believed now that Copenhagen,in all probability,would only be the starting point,and not the deadline as it was supposed to be,in finding a new global framework in climate change.

Copenhagen is unlikely to produce an all-encompassing comprehensive successor to the Kyoto Protocol. In fact,expectations from the December summit have never been so low despite seemingly hectic activity on climate change across the world in the last couple of months. But if Copenhagen fails to produce a desired outcome,India wants to make sure that it is not held responsible for that. It is this burning desire not to be seen as the deal-breaker that is behind the repeated assertions by Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and others that India was part of the solution on the climate change and not the problem.

Post-Copenhagen,India sees itself engaging with the developed world once again to access finance and technology. In such a scenario,it would help if India negotiates with these countries as a partner and not an adversary.

Someone like Environment Minister Jairam Ramesh,who has been criticised for diluting India’s position on climate change by his unilateral offers,seems to believe that India has an image problem in the western world which sees New Delhi as obstructionist and too demanding. He seems to be of the opinion that as long as India’s core principles on the issue are not compromised,there is no harm in making nuanced shifts from its earlier positions to give an impression that India was actively engaged with the problem and ready to contribute in significant measure to the global effort.

India’s eagerness to change its image in the developed world stems from the fact that China seems to have succeeded in doing the same. Following President Hu Jintao’s speech at the UN last month,China,which has often been bracketed with India on climate change,is suddenly being feted for its promised action on climate change. So much so that UNFCCC Executive Secretary Yvo de Boer described China as the “front-runner” in the fight against climate change and UN Secretary General Ban ki-Moon has asked other countries to follow China’s example.

Interestingly,each of the measures that China announced at the UN last month — be it massive afforestation,or a major shift to renewable energy — is also a part of India’s strategy to deal with climate change. Some observers,therefore,believe India missed an opportunity to make a similar kind of an impact at the UN by not being represented by its PM. Jairam Ramesh was too lightweight compared to the Chinese President on a global stage.

There also seems to be a growing realisation in the Indian camp that a lot that this country wants from the rest of the world to deal with climate change would have to come through bilateral arrangements. While it still swears by multilateralism — the official line being that bilateral pacts can only complement multilateral efforts and not substitute it — India is actively considering bilateral agreements with a number of countries,including the US.

India has too much at stake in the climate change debate,not the least because it is likely to face one of the worst impacts of global warming. By showing flexibility,it is hoping to get the best possible outcome for itself from Copenhagen and beyond. It seems to be proceeding on the premise that being seen to be doing something is often as important,if not more,as actually doing it. It remains to be seen whether the rest of the world appreciates this.