As External Affairs Minister S M Krishna and his Pakistani counterpart Shah Mahmood Qureshi held discussions behind a glass door in the Pakistani Foreign Ministry on July 16,the whispers in the lobby of the former hotel building were the first signs of the fissure between the two sides.
Indian officials painted a rosy picture,with Foreign Secretary Nirupuma Rao telling the waiting reporters to expect a good outcome,after the joint press briefing was delayed the first time at 2 pm. Some even commented on the constructive candour of the Pakistani delegation,suggesting a sea change in Islamabads stance on terror,especially after the Data durbar shrine attack in Lahore. However,the Pakistani officials and journalists,standing alongside,had already smelled a deadlock.
In the end,in the first high-level engagement between India and Pakistan since 26/11,there proved to be just too wide a gulf between the two sides,on as much perceptions as expectations:
BAD START
Though the two sides kept insisting that the atmosphere was cordial,for Islamabad,the contents of the discussion had already been influenced by Union Home Secretary G K Pillais statement to The Sunday Express that the ISI planned and coordinated the 26/11 attack from the beginning to the end.
The Indians always tell us that the Army and the intelligence service need to be brought on board for any forward movement. For months,we have been trying to do that. Gen Pashas ISI chief Gen Shuja Pashas visit to the Indian High Commission to attend an Iftar party was very much a part of that process, a Pakistani official said.
Everything was going on smoothly. There was a deliberate attempt to lower the expectations from this round of talks. All was well till the Pillai comment. Our side could have well ignored that but the minister Krishna pushed it further. Everybody knew the Indian position on the agenda from the beginning. What was the need to reinforce it,not once but twice before the talks began?
Krishnas statements,within hours of each other after his arrival in Pakistan,reinforced the view that Pillais remarks were deliberately timed for a day ahead of the engagement.
On the one hand Indians scorn us that dialogue with our political establishment is to shake hands with a shadow, because for them every movement on talks is ultimately determined by our army and intelligence institutions. If that is the case,then they know that bringing up the ISI a day ahead of talks would not help, the official said.
THE ISI FACTOR
Both Foreign Minister Qureshi and Interior Minister Rehman Malik were at pains to stress that the Pakistani army and other security institutions were supportive of the political establishments dialogue with New Delhi. The public display of acrimony with India,over blame being put on the ISI,could also have been an effort by the government to demonstrate to the army and its institutions that its heart lay in the right place. How would the Indian government have reacted if Pakistani officials accused Sonia Gandhi before the talks began? a Pakistani journalist asked,only half-seriously. There is a war going on against terrorism inside Pakistan and the army and its institutions are at the forefront fighting this menace. Politicians cannot afford to ignore them at this juncture.
THE HEADLEY HEADER
The fresh revelations thrown up by David Headleys interrogation had already been communicated to Pakistan by Home Minister P Chidambaram during his recent visit to Islamabad,and he had chosen not to make the information public. So Pillais comments didnt just leave just Islamabad rattled,but came as a shock to the MEA as well.
By the time the joint press briefing was delayed the second time at 6 pm,the deadlock had already become news. There was even speculation that the joint press conference may well be cancelled because the two leaders were unable to iron out major differences. It was evident that the Pakistani side felt cornered,and felt the only way left for it to crawl out was to bring in issues that New Delhi was averse to place on the table.
ULTIMATELY ITS KASHMIR
So,a day after the joint press briefing,Qureshi said India was not mentally prepared to discuss all outstanding issues with Pakistan and rather wanted a selective agenda that suited its interests. India cannot expect Pakistan to address all the issues that are dear to India foremost among them prosecuting those involved in the Mumbai attacks and then choose to ignore those that are dear to Pakistan,such as Kashmir,Sir Creek,Siachen and so on, an editorial in Pakistans Express Tribune newspaper said. However,the paper argued that Islamabad must act on Mumbai to help move the dialogue ahead.
The return to Kashmir reflected a turnabout in the Pakistani stand,with Qureshi earlier having set Pakistani media circles abuzz by noting that the elected government of Omar Abdullah in Jammu and Kashmir favoured the talks. That Qureshi hadnt prefixed Jamp;K with occupied would,in normal circumstances,have been considered a major diplomatic victory by India. But as the talks suddenly unravelled,what Qureshi ended up doing was expressing concern over the recent civilian killings in the Valley and the state governments decision to call in armed forces to quell protests.
There is another reason Pakistan felt the need to amend its Kashmir line. The recent mass protests do not have any imprint of Pakistan,and silence on the issue could have further alienated Islamabad from the Valley.
The hawkish elements,who have gained substantially in the recent past,would have made more gains.
While India and Pakistan have both tried to make up after that acrimonious end to the talks,there is no disputing that an opportunity has been squandered.
The public mood in Islamabad was well captured by columnist Nazir Naji in Pakistans largest Urdu newspaper Jang. To negotiate as equals,it is essential to enjoy an equal position on the table. India is the strongest country in South Asia with a big,growing economy and a lot of confidence,while Pakistan is a weaker party, he wrote. It seems that the Indian delegations mandate was only to ensure Pakistan continues to remain in a defensive stance.