Agni V demonstrates that India has the capacity. But it still lacks a strategy
If Thursdays test of the long-range ballistic missile Agni V is a technical triumph for the Defence Research and Development Organisation,the muted world reaction to it marks a major success for Indias recent diplomacy. The missing link,however,is the Ministry of Defence that seems either unwilling or incapable of imparting a strategic direction to Indias missile programme. In the near term,Agni V provides the technological basis for a land-based nuclear deterrent. India,nevertheless,is some distance away from realising the logic of its self-proclamation as a nuclear weapon power in May 1998. It is only when Agni V is inducted into the armed forces in sufficient numbers and sea-launched ballistic missiles are tested and deployed on its nuclear-powered submarines that are currently under development can India rightly claim the possession of a credible,minimum nuclear deterrent.
In the past,the US greeted every Indian missile test with the threat of more technological sanctions. Washingtons praise of Indias impeccable non-proliferation record in the wake of the Agni V test reflects the sea change in Western attitudes following Delhis determined pursuit of the historic civil nuclear initiative during 2005-08. The US and its allies now see India as a responsible nuclear power and a strategic partner. Equally important has been Chinas restrained response. While Agni V will eventually give Delhi a deterrent capability against Beijing,Chinese officials rightly emphasised the fact that India is not a rival. As it begins to acquire nuclear parity with China,Delhi should now have the confidence to intensify cooperation with Beijing across a broad range of areas.
The implications of Agni V go beyond the nuclear domain into outer space. It gives India the capacity to launch many small military satellites in one shot on short notice and experiment with anti-satellite weapons that some major powers have already tested. The DRDO has given the nation a potential military workhorse to access outer space in the form of Agni V. With Defence Minister A.K. Antony reluctant to press for a comprehensive military space programme,it is up to Prime Minister Manmohan Singh to demonstrate that Delhi has the political will to arrest the widening gap between India and other great powers in the military uses of outer space.