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Reaching out again

Indias offer of foreign secretary level talks is welcome and timely

Nothing is carved in stone in geopolitics and realpolitik. Indias freeze on talks with Pakistan since the Mumbai attack of November 2008 had exceeded its use-by date. The refusal to talk was severely constricting New Delhis room for manoeuvre. Meanwhile,Indias enemies in Pakistan were profiting from the lack of dialogue,even as Islamabad increased its aggression as in its recent success in elbowing India out of the discussion on Afghanistan. Therefore,the offer of foreign secretary-level talks to Pakistan is welcome. The government is understandably proceeding with caution,and this offer does not automatically imply a resumption of the bilateral dialogue. Nevertheless,New Delhi does not have the luxury of going into a fresh sulk if things do not go right for a while.

Just as it is imperative to talk to Islamabad,it is also necessary for Delhi to harbour no illusions,to not expect immediate,and radical,progress. Pakistan is a divided country,with not only fractured power and policy but also shifting lines of demarcation. So,talks may be no guarantee of Pakistans cooperation on terror. Delhi must be fully aware of that as it nuances its engagement with Islamabad. Indias interest lies in changing the internal dynamic of Pakistan in its favour. That can only be a slow and long haul. There will be no miracles.

It is even more imperative to pay attention to the context in which that engagement is to happen. Changes are shaping up in Indias north-western neighbourhood with far-reaching consequences for the Indo-Pak-Afghan triangle. As the international community readies to negotiate with the Taliban,the Pakistan army senses its biggest opportunity in Kabul since November 2001. As post-9/11 Afghanistan enters its Phase II,India must integrate its strategies towards Pakistan and Afghanistan,and engage with the diverse elements in the region,with emphasis on the Pashtuns,long alienated from India and as the largest ethnic group holding the key to Afghan peace and to Indias continued interests in Kabul. Securing the neighbourhood calls for trilateral talks between New Delhi,Islamabad and Kabul. And securing the neighbourhood is the road to Indias eventual freedom from

terror. It is a matter of incremental confidence-building steps towards a holistic engagement with all political thorns. Simultaneously,all three parties can gain economically from trade,transit and infrastructure. If New Delhi seizes the moment,it can change the trilateral dynamic.

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