NDMA wants alert system for Char Dham

While area- and event-specific weather forecasts are not new — forecasts for the Commonwealth Games was done separately and Everest climbers routinely ask for specific forecasts — the problem is more complicated than that.

A scientist,formerly with the National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecast in Noida,said the problem is that impact assessment of a weather event is not easily available. “Suppose IMD forecasts that there will be 10 cm rainfall at a given place on a given day. Now,no one in the local administration knows what 10 cm rainfall means for the area. IMD,in consultation with states and local authorities,needs to work on generating impact assessments of its forecasts. That would help a great deal in preparing for extreme weather events like the one in Uttarakhand,” he said.

Some years ago,the Department of Science and Technology had prepared a plan for Integrated Disaster Prediction and Management System,which was supposed to integrate meteorological,hydrological,topographical,geological and other such inputs to prepare a complete picture of an impending crisis. But nothing was heard about that plan.

The scientist said the kind of rainfall in Uttarakhand during a short span was “very difficult to quantify and predict”. “We have a phase-wide alert system for tropical cyclones,but unfortunately,not for heavy rainfall. We need to start doing that,” he said.

NDMA’s emphasis on installing more Doppler radars in the region is also timely. Some Doppler radars have been placed in the Himalayan region but experts say what is required is a network of such radars because of obstructions in the form of hills. Such radars are able to quantify heavy rainfall in shorter durations with a reasonable degree of accuracy.