With their fate sealed in the EVMs which would open today,most candidates and their close associates in Haryana have been spending sleepless nights. Bhupinder Singh Hooda is almost certain to become the chief minister again. However,no one,including the ruling Congress,believes that the outcome could be anywhere near a re-run of the recent Lok Sabha elections which the Congress swept by bagging nine of the 10 seats. It certainly encouraged the party to seek preponement of the polls by seven months,but it could not have been unaware of the differences of factors between the two elections. Interestingly,the satta bazaar has been recording declining number of seats for the ruling Congress since the elections were announced. At that time,the stakes were put at over 65 seats for the Congress out of a total of 90. A couple of days before the voting on October 13,the best bets were laid for 56 seats for the Congress and 17 for the INLD. The latest figure is 51 for the Congress and 19 for the INLD. The BJP,BSP and the Haryana Janhit Congress (HJC) are finding few who would bet on them. A number of factors like voting trends,multiplicity of contests,division of Jat and non-Jat voters,issues at stake in the Assembly elections as opposed to the recent Lok Sabha elections,crucial role of rebels and even more significant but silent role of the disgruntled party leaders would impact the political activities after the results are out. The five cornered contests,with none of the five major parties reaching a pre-poll alliance,have complicated the calculations and assessment by parties. One of the most significant trends emerging out of a study of voting patterns in the state is that polling has been heavy in rural areas,particularly in the Jat dominated areas,while it has been very low in the urban centres where Jats have negligible presence much worse than what it was during the Lok Sabha elections. Thus,the polling in the largely rural Kalka constituency was 77.13 per cent,but in the urban Panchkula it was 57.47 per cent. Similarly,while the rural Naraingarh recorded 82.82 per cent,it was 68 per cent in the adjoining Ambala Cantt. Overall,the state recorded its highest ever polling at 72.71 per cent. Political observers attribute the turnout to the tough contests in most constituencies which stretched the candidates to the extreme. INLD,or the party led by the Devi Lal clan,is considered a party of the Jats. The Congress,led by Bhupinder Singh Hooda,tried its best to dent the INLD following among the Jats and projected itself as an alternative. Voting pattern does not indicate that it may have made a big success of it with former CM Om Prakash Chautala attracting sizeable crowds and heavy polling in the areas traditionally known to be the partys stronghold. It also indicates that the voters were most interested in issues pertaining to the rural areas and that the urban voter largely remained unconcerned with what was being promised to him. The multi-cornered contests in all the 90 constituencies can easily upset the calculations by various political parties and their candidates. And it appears that the voters may have gone in for their own polarisation to bet on the stronger among the candidates in different constituencies.
