Lalu in need,Paswan demands his pound of flesh

Paswan was mistaken into believing Lalu that he would get the Railways. He felt cheated when after throwing tantrums for the Home Ministry,Lalu latched on to the Railways portfolio,dashing his hopes. Paswan joined the Government only after a lot of persuasion from late prime minister V P Singh but with the resolve to avenge the ‘humiliation’.

The time to avenge has come. With the Lok Sabha polls round the corner,Paswan is sure that Lalu needs him once again. This time he has decided not to yield any ground to Lalu. His message is loud and clear: If Lalu wants an alliance he should give him 16 seats. If not,the LJP would go alone and contest all the 40 seats in Bihar.

The LJP chief knows post-poll numbers will matter. Lalu grabbed the Railways because he had 24 MPs (22 from Bihar and two from Jharkhand) and he was helpless with just four.

Paswan also knows that Lalu cannot afford to have LJP candidates on all seats in Bihar. He can see what can happen. In the 2005 Assembly polls,the LJP went alone and it saw the end of the 15-year-old Lalu-Rabri regime.

“If we go alone our tally of four MPs remains intact. The RJD,however,cannot hope to win 22 seats without us,” Paswan told The Indian Express. “In an alliance both parties should gain. The RJD should not behave like it is the donor and others are at its mercy. This equation must change this time if they want an alliance.”

That Lalu needs the Dalit leader is reflected in his “sugar coated” reaction to Paswan’s muscle flexing that he should get an opportunity to lead the UPA in Bihar. “Ram Vilas Paswan has the ability and experience to lead the UPA. I also support his demand for a Dalit prime minister,” Lalu had said in response.

In Bihar,Paswan is aware of his strength. With a transferable support base among the Dalits and a vote share of around 14 per cent,he can tilt the balance. The NDA had swept the 1999 Lok Sabha polls when he was a part of it. The RJD walked with a lions share when he joined the UPA in 2004. The RJD won 22 of 28 seats it contested,the Congress and LJP won three and four respectively.

To win over Paswan,the RJD is banking on UPA chairperson Sonia Gandhi. Sonia last time had convinced Paswan to ally with the RJD-Congress combine in Bihar. Sensing a repeat,Paswan has already met Sonia and told her this time,he won’t allow Lalu to boss over seat-sharing.

Paswan knows that after losing Bihar Lalu is desperate to maintain his clout at the Centre. For that he needs enough MPs in the next Lok Sabha. Therefore,he needs Paswan more than ever.