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This is an archive article published on February 17, 2010

Gradual rollback of stimulus seen in FY11

Gross market borrowing of the govt is forecast to rise to a record $100 bn in the next fiscal.

The government will gradually wind down its growth-supporting stimulus over the next fiscal year beginning on April 1,but will still need to borrow a record amount from the market,a Reuters survey of economists showed.

The government will present its budget for the fiscal year 2010/11 on Feb. 26,with markets waiting for details on the stimulus,borrowing,and fiscal deficit as well as a roadmap for introducing a new Goods and Services Tax (GST).

Twenty six out of 28 economists polled see the rollback to be either gradual or expect the government to take marginal measures to withdraw the fiscal stimulus introduced in Oct. 2008 to help Asia’s third-biggest economy cope with the global financial crisis.

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The survey of 27 participating economists showed a median fiscal deficit of 5.6 per cent of gross domestic product in the 2010/11 year. Gross market borrowing of the government is forecast to rise to a record Rs 4.61 trillion ($100 billion) in the next fiscal year from this year’s 4.51 trillion.

The government is expected to raise Rs 275 billion ($6 billion) through selling its equity stakes in state-run companies,the survey showed.

The survey also showed that half of analysts expect little change in the government’s social spending on sectors such as education,healthcare and rural development.

Thirteen out of 27 economists expect the budget to announce measures to allow more foreign investment in local companies and 14 expect significant steps to raise agricultural productivity.

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