A vote into the unknown

Those bloody events refers to the explosion of violence in June between ethnic Kyrgyz and ethnic Uzbeks in the south of Kyrgyzstan that killed at least 371 people and sent more than 75,000 Uzbeks fleeing into neighbouring Uzbekistan. It destabilised the country and sent shock waves across the region. It also dampened the sense of hope many had felt after the bloody overthrow in April of the dictatorial president,Kurmanbek Bakiyev,and the pledge by the interim government under Roza Otunbayeva now president to bring in a parliamentary republic. Despite the violence and uncertainty,a constitutional referendum was held in late June and approved by more than 90 per cent of voters.

But the election may disappoint those hoping for a new start. An anxious and sombre mood prevails,reflected in party slogans such as Fear or Security? Choose! or Unity,Stability,Security. The elite seems unlikely to change. Feliks Kulov,a former prime minister and leader of the Ar-Namys Dignity party,for example,is said to have a good chance of getting into parliament,along with five or six other parties. He is ethnically Kyrgyz with a reputation as a law-and-order man,who appeals to the ethnic Uzbek and ethnic Russians as well as to the urban Kyrgyz.

The Uzbeks,who are the second-largest ethnic group with 14.5 per cent of the population compared with almost 70 per cent for the ethnic Kyrgyz,feel vulnerable. According to a recent Human Rights Watch report,some government forces,knowingly or unwittingly,encouraged attacks on Uzbek neighbourhoods in June. Widespread violations have taken place during the authorities investigation into the violence,which took place around the cities of Osh and Jalal-Abad,mostly populated by Uzbeks.

Though some of the parties go out of their way to present people of different ethnicities in their advertisements,relations between Uzbeks and Kyrgyz remain tense. We are surviving on good luck at the moment, says Paul Quinn-Judge of the International Crisis Group,an NGO. He fears that Ms Otunbayeva has not taken enough advantage of the current lull to forestall future violence.

Whatever the election result,it will take time for trust to be rebuilt. Reconciliation needs a new government and parliament,not a caretaker government,says one diplomat. Nobody knows whether parties that fail to pass the dual thresholds of 5 per cent nationally and 0.5 per cent regionally will accept the results. We are all going about our daily business as usual,but no one is planning 2-3 months ahead, says Dinara Oshurahunova,executive director of the Coalition for Democracy and Civil Society. Everyone is waiting for election day.

The Economist Newspaper Limited 2010

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