Vajpayee’s challenges

Vajpayee’s bombshell in Parliament that he will not contest any more elections, which took the BJP and even his close aides by surprise, is a signal to the RSS not to push him beyond a point.

So is the surprise appointment of Pramod Mahajan as the Prime Minister’spolitical advisor. Mahajan is known for his Machiavellian skills. He was one of those who had vigorously resisted the appointment of Jaswant Singh as Finance Minister. Yet Vajpayee has chosen him as his ace trouble-shooter. Mahajan is one of those few senior BJP leaders who does not have an RSS background.

Vajpayee has been deeply hurt by the Jaswant Singh episode. He is believed to have told confidants, “sometimes I feel like leaving it all.”

It is no secret that the RSS reversed Vajpayee’s decision to appoint Jaswant Singh as Finance Minister. In so doing it demonstrated that he was a mukhota.

The decision about Jaswant Singh was cleared by Vajpayee, L.K. Advani and K.C. Sudershan at 9 p.m., though Advani and the RSS leaders continued to have reservations. The list was sent to Rashtrapati Bhavan. Vajpayee informed Jaswant Singh who is learnt to have asked if the decision was final and he could tell his family. But a phone call from a highly-placed RSS functionary in Madras changed everything. Theissue was reopened and the tussle went on till early hours of the morning. By 5 a.m. Jaswant Singh was out of the race. Hours later, Vajpayee had to eat his words again though he said he would retain the Finance portfolio, Yashwant Sinha became the Finance Minister.

Vajpayee neither has the crucial Finance portfolio given to someone of his choice, nor will the intelligence agencies report to him directly as has been the case since Indira Gandhi, with the reported move to place them, and the Department of Personnel, under the Home Minister’s charge.

The message of the Jaswant episode is that the country’s chief executive could not appoint a minister in his Cabinet on whom he had set his heart. H.D. Deve Gowda who headed a 13-party coalition ministry was given a list by the State satraps but he had his way in giving a plum portfolio to his Man Friday, C.M. Ibrahim. Even Inder Gujral, who was told in no uncertain terms by Laloo Yadav to drop Devendra Prasad Yadav and by other UF constituents to continuewith Deve Gowda’s Cabinet, could bring in his own man Jaipal Reddy.

That Vajpayee should want to induct Jaswant Singh into his ministry soon after his defeat showed the sense of isolation he felt. Singh has been his right-hand man.

Vajpayee’s temperament being what it is, he is not able to assert more. He may also not want to rock the boat at this stage. His exit — if he decides to throw in the towel — would jeopardise the alliance.

His capitulation raises other questions. His inability to stand up on seemingly small issues raises doubts about his capacity to be firm on vital matters.

Just as the mandate in 1989 was for V.P. Singh to head the government, so it is for Atal Behari Vajpayee in 1998. The 3 per cent increase in the BJP’s vote share this time is essentially due to the Vajpayee factor, a euphemism for moderation, liberalism and change. That is the reason for the party’s gain in the South.

There is a growing perception that the RSS is interfering in appointments. This can break thefragile relationship of the BJP with its allies. And today the BJP is dependent on 19 parties to support it.

Consequently, it is the 180-member party which has had to tone down its programme. Every partner has made it clear that it is with the BJP because the party has accepted `their’ agenda. They have not accepted `its’ agenda. The allies are not only bargaining for their share in power — and never in any of the past coalitions from 1977 to 1996 has such hard bargaining taken place — they have also set the ideological agenda for the government. They are supporting the BJP because it has given them assurances on secularism and promised not to raise the Babri Masjid issue or the Uniform Civil Code or Article 370, and these parties make no secret of this fact. Not one of the 100 MPs belonging to the allies has come out in defence of the RSS or its programme.

Coalitions have become a reality of Indian politics and anyone who wants to rule Delhi will have to grapple with it. The failure of the BJP to run acoalition government successfully will undermine not just Vajpayee’s position but also that of the party and the Sangh parivar.

It is not inconceivable that when any of the regional parties decides to severe its ties with the BJP, they will make the RSS an issue. This happened in 1979 and the Janata Party government fell on the issue of dual membership of the then Jan Sangh. It has taken the BJP 20 years to come back to power. There is one man who can help moderate the influence of the RSS and act as a bridge between Vajpayee and the RSS and that is L.K. Advani. Since Bhau Rao Deoras’ death seven years ago, Advani has probably influenced the RSS’ political thinking more than the Sangh has shaped the policy of the BJP.

Today Advani and Vajpayee, a duo the like of which does not exist in any other party, are pivotal to the success of the experiment at the Centre.

It is prudent for the RSS to maintain a low profile and not encourage a process which could become potentially fatal for it, the BJP and theGovernment. A mere denial by Vajpayee that he is not a mukhota or that the RSS is not trying to influence matters will not make everything hunky dory, for few things remain hidden. It will have to get reflected in actions, and the proof of the pudding is in the eating.