Vajpayee versus Modi in 2004?

In India, the shades that constitute the entire political spectrum are varied. The regional parties on the periphery of the cow belt and the caste parties in this belt have some features in common. They constitute the support base which once belonged to the Congress. They have projected charismatic leaders like M.G. Ramachandran (AIADMK) and N.T. Rama Rao (TDP) who consolidated their political base by a potent mix of cinematic glamour and linguistic regionalism.

The regional and the caste parties are navigating between the Congress and the BJP, playing one against the other. In this game of attrition the Congress, rather like the scions of a dying feudal order, is losing estates and furniture and the BJP, like an energetic developer, unencumbered with any history of power, is capturing the ground being vacated by the Congress. The Congress does not even have the instruments to assess and conclude that while Himachal Pradesh was won by Virbhadra Singh and Vidya Stokes, Gauriganj in Amethi was lost by Sonia Gandhi.

In this framework, Digvijay Singh’s victory in Madhya Pradesh will enhance his prestige in the state. His defeat will reflect on the party as a whole and Sonia Gandhi will look that much more of a diminished figure. The only game possible at number 10 Janpath is to field Priyanka and field her quickly. Although it is difficult to see how even Priyanka’s debut will help the Congress in UP and Bihar where Mayawati, Mulayam Singh Yadav and Laloo Prasad Yadav are so well entrenched.

Will the main Kurukshetra for the central coalition be between the BJP and a Congress which has fielded Priyanka? If there is to be no change at the top in the Congress,then the principal tussle during 2004 General Elections will be between a physically and mentally spruced up Atal Behari Vajpayee and whoever stands for Modiism.

The manner in which Modi has been talking of the “hurt pride” of Gujaratis has some echoes of T. Anjaiah’s complaint against Rajiv Gandhi for having hurt Andhra pride which paved the way for NTR’s ascent to power. Modi’s variety of energy too appears to be typical of similar short distance runners: Joeg Haider of Austria, for instance.In other words it is not impossible to visualize Modi in the future as a regional player whom the BJP at the centre will accommodate in a national coalition.

The Gujarat pogrom was ghastly but I fear that even in its effort to demonise Modi, the media has exaggerated his stature. This projection of the “Gujarat model” crafted by Modi has tended to play into the hands of the right fringe of the Sangh Parivar. India is too vast and varied a democracy to have one model, crafted on an extreme margin, find acceptability across the country, indeed even in the limited arena of the “cow” belt.

But this is the pressure that will be applied on Vajpayee: by his own right wing: a series of elections have to be won leading to a crowning victory in the 2004 elections. Therefore the Parivar cannot abandon experiences gained in Gujarat. But what happened in Himachal Pradesh, then?

Indeed, Vajpayee’s effort to decompress the national mood at the Agra summit in July 2001 was undermined by others. Vajpayee intended to go into the February 2002 elections in UP, Uttaranchal, Punjab, Manipur and the three seats in Gujarat on a moderate platform. His right wing smudged Vajpayee’s game, hardened the platform (9/11 and December 13 complicated the situation admittedly) and went into the February 2001 elections on their extreme platform. What happened? UP, Uttaranchal, Manipur, Punjab and two seats in Gujarat were lost. The results came out on February 26. On February 27 Gujarat was ablaze, pushing into the background any memory of the humiliating results in the four states. Since then those results have never been discussed. Only the “Gujarat model” has been thrust upon us. Vajpayee must revert to his agenda which occupies the spaces being vacated by the Congress. Of course the game will change radically if the Congress makes changes at the top.

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