US trips over CTBT wrangle

The Clinton administration and the Democrat lawmakers, who wanted to force a vote on the treaty in the Senate, now want to back off because they don8217;t have the two-thirds numbers needed to ratify the pact. The Senate Republicans, who had held off debate on the treaty for months, now want to force a vote and reject the treaty to prove their point that the treaty is imperfect, and a quot;wrong pact at the wrong time.quot;

Amid this domestic wrangle, administration mandarins who were admonishing New Delhi and Islamabad for not signing the treaty are suddenly at a loss. quot;We admit we 8211; US, India,Pakistan 8211; are all in the same boat. We all have to build a domestic consensus on the CTBT,quot; US Assistant Secretary for South Asia, Karl Inderfurth, admitted rather contritely at a talk on Wednesday.

Administration officials are now indicating that the CTBT will no more be central to President Clinton8217;s visit to the region and the onus will be on India and Pakistan to sign the treaty on their own accord.

quot;Perhaps India and Pakistan should sign the treaty to put pressure on the US to ratify it,quot; Inderfurth suggested, when asked with what moral authority Washington could put pressure when its own domestic debate on the issue was so unsettled. The treaty has overnight come under tremendous public focus with President Clinton personally crusading for it. At a White House event on Tuesday, Clinton said unless the Senate ratified the treaty, it would give quot;our friends India and Pakistanquot; an excuse to press ahead with further nuclear testing.

Senate Republicans, many of whom believe the US itself needs theleeway to conduct nuclear tests to keep its weapons updated, are unfazed. They have threatened a vote next week unless Clinton promises that he will not bring it up before he demits office. Jesse Helms, the most hard-line of the conservatives, wants that commitment in writing. The administration has tried to drum up public support for the treaty to scare and embarrass the conservatives. In an unprecedented development earlier this week, more than 30 physics Nobel laureates issued a statement supporting the treaty. The Republicans countered it with a statement by six former defence secretaries from Republican administration arguing that the treaty would quot;reduce the credibility of America8217;s nuclear deterrent.quot;

Given President Clinton8217;s personal zeal in the matter, the administration is expected to pursue for some more time the 22 votes it needs to get the pact ratified Democrats hold 45 seats in the 100-member and need a two-thirds majority. Clinton has been engaging in dinner diplomacy to win overseveral moderate Republicans. However, if the numbers don8217;t add up by the weekend, the administration may prefer to take the pact off the table and retreat to fight another day, which could mean putting it off till the next administration. In the South Asia context, experts say it will give both India and Pakistan more time to sort out their domestic debate.