UP combos: they come for a price

What about Ajit Singh’s Rashtriya Lok Dal, which came to power in three seats in alliance with SP this time? Even though the SP has done well in UP, the RLD has not benefitted from the tie-up. Moreover, Ajit Singh cannot be insensitive to the fact that the Congress revival in UP is now a distinct possibility. Rahul and Priyanka entered the fray far too late and that is the only reason the Congress could win only nine seats this time.

There is a difference of nuance in the way CPM’s Harkishen Singh Surjeet and CPI’s A.B. Bardhan view Congress-SP tensions in UP. The CPI has actually lost ground to the two Yadavs in Bihar and UP. The CPM’s principal adversary, in contrast, is the Congress in Kerala and West Bengal. It has no real animosity toward the Yadav formations.

Along with the 40 seats of the SP-RLD combine, the Left with its 64 seats, feels secure as part of a large, anti-BJP front. But if the Congress and SP were to come into direct conflict, where will the CPM stand? A combat is possible in the UP assembly elections but those are due only in 2007.

Meanwhile, what happens to the Congress? The latest reports indicate that the Brahmins, Rajputs and Muslims in the state were inclined toward the party but its candidates did not look like winners. It takes time to revive the organisation, identify candidates, establish contacts. At least a year or two. But there is a flip side to delaying the inevitable yudh with the SP. The Congress may lose the momentum built up by the Lok Sabha results and, importantly, the national appeal of Sonia Gandhi’s renunciation.

Also, delay gives time for the SP to work out alternative strategies. After the October assembly elections in Maharashtra, who knows, Sharad Pawar may feel less encumbered with commitments made prior to the state elections. Mulayam has already picked up Rahul’s gauntlet: Lohia socialists were always anti- Congress, he says. In which case, keep a steady gaze on the socialists, to see which way they will swing.

Heaven knows what the line up in Bihar will be, before and after, the state elections due in February. The manner in which the Congress handled the distribution of portfolios between Laloo Prasad Yadav and Ram Vilas Paswan does not inspire confidence. Ahmad Patel promised to Paswan what Arun Singh, R.K. Dhawan and Kapil Sibal had been instructed to offer Laloo Yadav. Also it’s uncertain whether the rift between Laloo and Paswan has been bridged.

Politics is the art of the possible, of course. But the big question is: when will the Congress precipitate the ultimate showdown in UP? And how? In the 403 strong Vidhan Sabha, the SP has 187, the BJP 87, the BSP 67, the Congress 16, and the RLD 17. An “oust the SP” game is only possible if the party strikes an alliance with the BSP.

The recent elections have shown that the Congress fares badly without an alliance. An arrangement with the BSP will become clearer when the Congress-NCP alliance ropes in Mayawati in the Maharashtra polls, where the indomitable Dalit leader has made considerable gains. If Mulayam is so cornered, how will Surjeet help him? Will he declare Mulayam a greater bulwark against communalism than the Congress? Or will Mulayam save his gaddi by seeking BJP’s support?

If Muslim are indeed drifting towards the Congress, the Yadavs at the core of the SP will have a profound sense of grievance against them, a fact the BJP could exploit. Remember, the Bhagalpur riots were primarily the result of Yadav mobilisation against Muslims.

In these elections, the Muslim vote was decisive in altering the national picture. An extended debate on Muslim intentions, and a lengthy dwelling on the theme can provide the Hindutva forces with “the other” against whom Hindu consolidation can be sought. But this line of argument runs into a wall: Hindutva has exhausted itself. True, but only partly. So long as casteism is the route to power, Hindu consolidation will have its proponents.

Given all these realities, the Congress-SP battle in UP is not a product of the simple addition and subtraction of communities and castes. It could set into motion a chemistry we cannot clearly see at this stage.