Turnout to decide shakeout

Historically, the electorate here has not allowed any party to consolidate. Former J-K PM Shamas-ud-din won in 1957, 1962 and 1972, twice on an NC ticket and once as a Congress nominee. In 1977, Mirza Afzal Beigh won on an NC ticket. His son Mehboob repeated the feat in 1983.

In 1987, when the emerging Muslim United Front put up M. Sayeed Shah, he won big. In 1996, Mehboob’s relative Safdar Ali Beigh won on an NC ticket.

The situation, however, has changed since. The NC has replaced loyalist Safdar with Mehboob. His surprise candidature has upset Safdar and Kochaks, an influential Anantnag family.

A few days back, Sheikh Abdullah’s close aide Ghulam Rasool Kochak resigned from the party, apparently for being ‘‘ignored’’ by the high command. Observers are certain NC’s chinks will tell upon voteshare.

They believe rival Liyaqat Ali, a militant turned counter-insurgent turned politician, will make good gains in and outside the township.