Turkey at threshold

The poll, conducted by Ali Carkoglu and Ersin Kalaycioglu from Sabanci and Isik universities in Istanbul, shows a decline in support for membership, from a high point of 74 percent in 2003 to 58 percent this year.

Face-to-face interviews with 1,846 adults in 23 cities throughout Turkey, conducted in March and April, found a strong religious influence. More than 60 percent of those responding said they would refuse to let their daughters marry non-Muslims. Also, 60 percent blamed a lack of religious beliefs for overall 8216;8216;failure in life8217;8217;. And 46 percent favored schools specialised in religious teachings for their children over schools with secular curriculums.

In politics, the Justice and Development Party, born in the ashes of fringe religious-based parties, rode a conservative wave and formed the first majority government in almost 20 years, in 2002.

Since then, there has been an increase in public displays of conservatism. But head scarves are still banned by the constitution, and religious conservatives hoped that the European Union would ask Turkey to permit the practice in the name of religious freedom. In the survey, 68 percent said they considered the ban to be religious oppression and supported its repeal.

Islamic businesses are benefiting from the changing attitudes. Mustafa Karaduman, the owner of Turkey8217;s leading women8217;s Islamic clothing store, uses the brand name Tekbir, which means 8216;8216;the one and only,8217;8217; a reference to God. He now has 22 stores with 78 more planned in three years.

8216;8216;Even if we opened stores in every city in Turkey, we would not be able to respond to the growing demand,8217;8217; he said. 8216;8216;All monotheistic religions order women to cover up, and my dream is to see all women in the world covered by our designs.8217;8217; He was not a strong supporter of Turkish membership in the European Union and prefers trade links with culturally closer partners.

Political leaders emphasize the importance of the union8217;s treating Turkey delicately. Foreign Minister Abdullah Gul says Turkey can be a bridge between neighboring cultures: 8220;The fact that Turkey is a Muslim country and has created a European-style democracy should be seen as a major contribution to world and European peace.8221;

Ali Babacan, the minister of finance and Turkey8217;s chief negotiator in the membership talks, says the Islamic world is watching how Turkey is treated. 8220;After the Sept. 11 attacks, change in the region is inevitable,8221; he said. 8220;All leaders in the EU have to realise this importance of the Turkish process and the negative consequences of what could happen if the process is derailed.8221;

Emre Kongar, an academic, accuses the government of not truly caring about the European Union. 8220;The present government is using its political power to transfer the capital from secular to religious circles,8221; he said. 8220;It8217;s a real threat to the secular democratic regime.8221;

8220;When you look at the streets you see more and more visual symbols of an Islamic way of life, so you start thinking that the country is shifting towards a more Islam than secular way of life,8221; Pekin Baran, the vice-president of the Turkish Businessmen Association, said. 8220;The miracle of this country is that you are in principle free to choose your way of life, and this is not easy.8221; NYT

The US test
OWEN MATTHEWS 038; SAMI KOHEN, ANKARA

Israel launched air strikes on Lebanon in response to attacks by Hizbollah earlier this month, and George W Bush called it 8220;self-defense8221;. But what to tell the Turks, who in the recent past have lost 15 soldiers to terror attacks launched by separatist Kurds from neighbouring Iraq? Many Turkish leaders are pressing for cross-border tactical air assaults on the guerrillas. But Bush, fearing yet another escalation of violence, urged Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan to hold off.

And so Turkish forces are holding fast 8212; for now 8212; in deference to their half-century alliance with the US. But that patience is bound to be challenged.

Domestic political pressures are building to take a leaf from Israel8217;s book and hit back at the guerrillas of the Kurdistan Workers8217; Party, or PKK. Since the beginning of the year, attacks on Turkish military garrisons and police stations have escalated across the country8217;s southeast, along with random shootings, bombings and protests 8212; many of them, authorities suspect, organised in Iraq. Already the Turkish military has laid detailed plans for possible helicopter-and-commando assaults, government sources tell Newsweek.

Ankara8217;s frustration with Washington has grown palpable. For all the Bush administration8217;s repeated promises to crack down on the PKK, little if anything has happened. With elections coming next year, Erdogan could be pardoned for concluding that his forbearance might prove politically dangerous. 8216;8216;Moderate, liberal people in Turkey are becoming increasingly anti-American,8217;8217; warns Foreign Minister Abdullah Gul. 8216;8216;That isn8217;t good.8217;8217;

The Turkish press has been baying for action, with even the pro-American Turkish Daily News railing in an editorial that 8216;8216;Turkey is no banana republic that can leave its security to the mercy of others8217;8217;. Another editorial posed the question more directly. 8216;8216;Why is it that Israel has the right to 8216;self-defence8217;,8217;8217; the paper asked, 8216;8216;and not Turkey.8217;8217;

The country8217;s usually fractious parliamentary opposition, in a rare moment of unity, called for active intervention. 8216;8216;Opposition,8217;8217; says True Path Party leader Mehmet Agar, 8216;8216;ends at Habur8217;8217; 8212; Turkey8217;s border crossing with Iraq.

Can Washington keep the lid on this bubbling pot? Not for long, many experts fear. Despite past assurances, the US military has been unwilling or unable to mount operations against the guerrillas. With its hands full elsewhere, Washington can offer little more than intelligence-sharing, coupled with possible measures to cut off PKK funding.

By contrast, Iran last week began shelling positions around Kandil Mountain on northern Iraq8217;s Iranian and Turkish border. President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad also called Erdogan to assure him of Tehran8217;s willingness to help quell the guerrillas 8212; unlike the US.

This won8217;t automatically lead to another front in the region8217;s wars. For all the clamor for a military strike, 8216;8216;the sane members of the Turkish General Staff are aware of the costs of going into northern Iraq,8217;8217; says independent analyst Grenville Byford. Those include possible all-out civil disorder across Turkey8217;s Kurdish southeast provinces 8212; which, if rioting this spring is anything to go by, would lead to a brutal crackdown, hurting Ankara8217;s hopes for joining the EU.

Objectively, Turkey knows that it has no real option but to remain within the Western Alliance. Erdogan himself will be reluctant to break with the West, however sorely provoked by the PKK. Still, if attacks continue to the point where his political survival is at stake, that sense of restraint could give way.

For the US and others, the diplomatic challenge is to help save Erdogan from having to make such a choice. If they fail, the next occasion may need more than a phone call from Bush. Newsweek

WHY THE WEST WOOS TURKEY

8226; Turkey could play a key diplomatic role in dealing with the burgeoning crisis in southern Lebanon, especially if Turkey were willing to provide troops to the sort of international force being promoted by France and other European leaders, including Tony Blair

8226; Not only are Turks Muslims, which should reduce frictions with the local population, but Ankara also enjoys good working relations with many of the countries and forces active behind the scenes

8226; As one of Damascus8217;s few friends in the region, Ankara would be in a good position to rein in Syrian ambitions in Lebanon

8226; Erdogan has been trying to play the role of mediator with Iran, Israel and the Palestinians as well 8212; precisely why Turkey would 8220;encourage and support8221; an international peacekeeping force, says Foreign Ministry spokesman Namik Tan