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This is an archive article published on December 7, 2008

Tribal pockets key to BJP, Cong’s fate in Chhattisgarh

BJP faces a litmus test of its ability to shake off the burden of anti-incumbency while Cong gets an opportunity to see if it can bounce back to power.

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The counting of votes for Chhattisgarh’s assembly elections will begin on Monday amid indications that the race between two main contenders for power — BJP and Congress — is poised for a close finish.

Ruling BJP faces a litmus test of its ability to shake off the burden of anti-incumbency while Congress gets an opportunity to see if it can bounce back to power in the 90-member House.

During the campaigns, the two parties were selling a mixed bag of national and local issues to the voters and indulging in a competitive bout of populism promising to reduce prices of rice to Rs 2 or Re 1 per kg and free power to farmers.

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Caste equations, presence of rebel candidates are cause of concerns for both the Congress and the BJP which will also keenly watch the performance of Bahujan Samaj Party whose social engineering experiment could poach into traditional vote banks of the two main parties.

The BSP, which opened its accounts in the 2003 polls with two seats — Sarangarh and Malkharoda — and shared around seven per cent vote, could tilt the balance in the event of a tight finish. BSP has fielded its candidates in all the 90 seats and is expected to increase its tally this time.

Among the political heavyweights whose fate will be decided tomorrow are CM Raman Singh from Rajnandgaon, former CM Ajit Jogi from Marwahi, his wife Renu Jogi from Kota, opposition leader Mahendra Karma from Dantewada, Speaker Premprakash Pandey from Bhilai, Congress state president Dhanendra Sahu from Abhanpur and his BJP counterpart Vishnudeo Sai from Pathalgaon.

The key to the results lies in the battle for supremacy between BJP and Congress in the tribal heartland which accounts for 29 seats spread across highly Naxal-infested areas.

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The BJP’s rising graph in the tribal areas since mid 1990s saw it emerging victorious in the previous assembly polls in 2003, the first since the formation of Chhattisgarh state, pushing Congress to a distant second with nine seats.

However, in the run up to this year’s election Congress sought to reclaim its hold on the tribal areas by alleging that innocent tribal were killed in the BJP government’s controversial ‘Salwa Judum'(anti-naxal campaign).

It also charged that the saffron party did little to stop the delimitation exercise in tribal areas which saw a decline of five assembly seats reserved for scheduled tribes.

Among the major issues that dominated the political discourse in the run up to the elections this time were terrorism, Naxalism in tribal belt and inflation.

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The BJP and Congress were also locked in the politics of populism promising to dole out free power to farmers and rice at Rs 2 and Re 1 a kg. While Congress election manifesto promised to supply rice at Rs 2 a kg, the BJP went a step further offering the same at Re1 a kg.

Election to the 90-member assembly were held in two phases on November 14 and 20. While BJP fielded candidate in all the 90 seats, Congress contested in 87 seats leaving three for its pre-poll allay Nationalist Congress Party (NCP).

In the last assembly election, BJP had secured 50 seats while Congress could manage 37 seats.

Counting of votes will be held at 17 centres spread across the state amidst tight security.

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This year’s election also saw a record high turnout of voters of about 70 per cent despite boycott and threat call by the Maoists.

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