To read the future, watch UP

Since the court has given the responsibility to the Speaker to act “as soon as possible”, and since the Speaker happens to be a Samajwadi Party man, the party may try and buy time. Its options, however, are narrowing. The Allahabad High Court has refused to stay the operation of the order, and things could become tricky if the Supreme Court insists on the implementation of the high court order before taking cognisance of the matter. Mulayam’s counter-move of winning a “confidence” vote — with the support of the Guilty Forty may not be the end of his problems.

The other player in this drama is Ajit Singh, whose MLAs can bail Mulayam out, even without the Guilty Forty. But there is no saying what Ajit Singh will do. For the moment he stands with Mulayam. His dilemma is that all his MLAs — except one — are ministers in the Mulayam government, so even if he decides to pull out, they may not heed his decision. The Congress is wooing Ajit Singh with renewed vigour. He has had dinner with Oscar Fernandes only recently and, more significantly, met Sonia Gandhi on Tuesday. But with elections only a few months away, he has to think of political alignments that bring him dividends. Mulayam may be losing ground, with crime increasingly raising its head in UP, but the Congress is nowhere in the picture. As for Mayawati, she is in no mood for pre-poll alliances given her party’s commendable performance in recent elections.

So how will Mulayam choose to play it? He would certainly want to avoid taking the risk of being shunted out and facing elections under central rule. He could recommend the dissolution of the state assembly but will the governor accept the decision after this judgment? Can the governor, for his part, sack Mulayam if he continues to defy the court order, as the Opposition has alleged, or if the Speaker takes his own sweet time to act?

As always, there is a national dimension to UP. Even though the Communist parties have been attacking the Congress on issue after issue, they have backed down somewhat in recent days. They did not, for instance, insist on a vote on Iran and have tried to build a tempo on issues which can help them in the forthcoming polls in Kerala and West Bengal. There is a growing suspicion in Left circles that Mulayam — given his running battle with the Congress — may use the Left to bring down the UPA government, and then work for an alternative government with the help of the BJP.

In fact, SP leaders talk privately about putting such a strategy in place after the UP polls, and are exploring the possibility of an alternative government headed, not by Mulayam, but by Sharad Pawar. This may sound far-fetched today, but there can be no denying that the UPA government could face a very grave threat after the UP elections, if a host of parties that are today with the UPA join hands with the regional parties in the NDA to lead a government supported by the BJP from the outside. The DMK could play a pivotal role in bringing this about. Such an attempt was, in fact, made in September 2004, soon after the UPA came to power. It came to naught because the DMK refused to play ball. That is also why the forthcoming elections in TN are crucial.

Realising the stakes, the Congress has also changed its strategy towards the Left. It has decided to be more mindful of Left concerns in the Union Budget, where unexpectedly high allocations were made for the social sectors and for rural employment. The prime minister’s reassurance about continuing India’s traditional ties with Iran is also significant, considering that India’s Iran vote had made Muslims and the Left unhappy.

As always Indian politics remains a complex phenomenon. But watching UP is always helpful in decoding it.