Three’s a crowd

One thing the Karnataka results have demonstrated is the depletion of the ‘Others’ column, as voters decisively expressed their desire for one major political formation or the other after witnessing the worst of coalition drama and instability. But while the BJP displayed the political savvy to turn this frustration to its favour, the Congress seems unable to capitalise on the two-party dynamic that is taking shape in most states — a shift that is crucial to electoral math at the national level.

The rise of the rest in Indian politics, a process set in motion after 1989, appears to have stemmed somewhat as voters plump for one major actor or the other. Nearly every state seems to be settling into a seesaw between two major parties and their respective constellations of smaller allies. In Tamil Nadu, smaller parties like the PMK and the MDMK cluster around either the DMK or the AIADMK, just like Kerala swings between the UDF and the LDF. So the inexorable splintering has not, in fact, necessarily thrown up a multiplicity of political alternatives — rather, they have tended to coalesce around one or the other big player in the state.

This two-party, or two-coalition dynamic has been strengthened in various ways, and not always to the benefit of national parties. In Uttar Pradesh, voters have deserted both the big national parties, and the BSP and the SP have clearly emerged as the two significant poles. Even in Karnataka the Congress, in failure, has actually improved on its performance four years ago. National parties have to reconcile themselves to this new dynamic. While the BJP has been more accommodating, being junior partners in Punjab, Orissa or Bihar, the Congress remains reluctant to accept the transition. Stand-alone parties have to adapt, and the Congress’s real crisis is that structurally it has not been able to read and respond to the regional mood. But national coalitions now hinge on getting this fact straight.