Threat perceptions

The fact that the largest chunk of the respondents holds the opinion that employment opportunities are taken away by migrants does not come as a surprise because Maharashtra faces high levels of unemployment. In 2001-2002 there were as many as 5 million registered unemployed adults in the state. Estimates indicate that the figures including unregistered people will be over 15 million.

Moreover, political rhetoric against migrants dates back to the 1960s when employment opportunities, or lack of them, were the main political issue. This explains why as many as 54 per cent of unemployed people of the state believe that migrants take away their employment opportunities.

A detailed analysis of the data reveals an interesting pattern. Contrary to popular perception that such emotive issues mobilise the downtrodden sections of society, in Maharashtra more urban, upwardly mobile sections of society share Raj Thackeray8217;s position.

If one were to map the anti-migrant sentiment in Maharashtra, it is certainly urban Maharashtra 44 per cent, and Mumbai emerges as the epicentre. Mumbaikars seem to have a clear consensus 53 per cent that migrants adversely affect employment opportunities. All the other regions of the state lie way below the state average of 37 per cent.

Interestingly, a higher proportion of graduates and post graduates 42 per cent compared to their non-literate 31 per cent counterparts share this sentiment. Similarly more affluent 40 per cent than poor 27 per cent 8212; both categories assessed according to a composite index which includes household income and family assets 8212; feel that migrants take away opportunities.

These findings raise serious questions on the political outcomes of the anti-migrant campaign. Will the MNS make major political gains from this issue as it is mostly the upwardly mobile sections of society who seem to be buying into the anti-migrant sentiment? Would it succeed in breaking the Shiv Sena8217;s Marathi vote bank? Last, but not least, if the more educated and well-to-do sections of society sympathise with divisive politics, serious concerns can be raised about the cosmopolitan culture of Indian metros like Mumbai.

Those who say that migrants adversely affect employment opportunities for Maharashtrians8230;

All 37

Unemployed 54

Mumbaikars 53

Urban 44

Rural 33

Graduates and post-graduates 42

Non-literates 31

Rich 40

Middle class 38

Poor 27

Note: All figures in percent.

Source: Maharashtra Assembly Election Study, Post Poll 8211; 2004, weighted data.

Question wording: People from various places come to Maharashtra for job/business opportunities. Some people have been complaining about this. Some people feel that Marathi culture is threatened by outsiders, while some feel that the coming of outsiders adversely affects the job/business opportunities for the people of Maharashtra. Others feel that the coming of outsiders makes no difference. What is your opinion?

Joshi is a public opinion reasearcher at Lokniti, CSDS

Curated For You

Dhurandhar Box Office Collection Worldwide Day 24 Update: RGV says Ranveer Singh film has kicked out South Indian movies; earns over Rs 1100 cr worldwide

Rajesh Khanna stood in line for a public toilet with a dabba; it gave him his last hit; Dimple Kapadia called his state pathetic

They called him Chinese and momo, he said hes from Tripura: In Dehradun, racial attack snuffs out young life