India-Russia relations have been described as ‘time tested’, ‘historic’, ‘unique’ and ‘integral’ to the foreign policies of both countries. Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, during his Moscow visit, repeated this language. Yet the media talked of a chill, in spite of government spokespersons insisting that there was warmth and continuity. So what is the reality? Some answers may be provided in the signals sent out by the Russians during the PM’s visit. The immediate issue is of the four new nuclear reactors that Russia has promised to add to Koodankulam nuclear power plant in Tamil Nadu, for which a memorandum of intent was signed in January 2007. Despite the clearances necessary from the IAEA and the Nuclear Suppliers’ Group, the Russians wanted to sign an intergovernmental agreement at par with the 123 agreement to show they were willing to assist India, bypassing discriminatory international regimes. The Indian side, which has used this route before, however cited technical grounds for postponing the Russian deal. Since the Indo-US deal and the consent of the NSG is the new centrepiece of Indian foreign policy, the Indian government preferred to go slow on that initiative.There can be no doubt that the earlier hype which had traditionally marked India-Russia relations was missing this time. In fact, in Russia it did not evoke the excitement that visits from other leaders, and especifically US leaders, often do. In India, too, the public response was tepid. But there is a reason for this. This is an engagement which has become institutionalised and is today on an even keel. India-Russia deals hardly ever figure in Parliament, for example. Russia has taken up from where the Soviet Union let off. At present it provides almost 70 per cent of the country’s military hardware, assists in India’s civil nuclear power programmes and even recently provided India the uranium it required for the Tarapur nuclear plant. The two have space and satellite cooperation, energy security, political understanding on Kashmir, the Security Council, West Asia, and other issues.In the current phase, there are agreements for the joint production of the fifth generation fighter aircraft — Sukhois — as well as multi-role transport aircraft. These are unique in that they include joint production, investment and independent production and have, in fact, brought about a structural change in the buyer-seller relations that India has with all its defence suppliers. India’s largest foreign investments abroad are in the Sakhalin I and II oil ventures — which have provided this country both oil and profits. The low levels in bilateral trade are because the business interests of both countries have faced considerable transaction problems, including those involving banking. To help resolve these problems, the prime minister has set up committees which will explore ways to expand trade with Russia to $10 billion by 2010, from the current level of around $4 billion. But no political document on a common vision, as is usual practice, was signed.What does all this show? First, that India and Russia have worked historically together on issues of bilateral political and economic interests and penetrated into areas where others could not tread. They have assisted each other in times when other countries have failed to help. Second, both countries have allowed the other to function with autonomy, and without attaching conditionalities to deals that they have signed with each other. Third, there is a consensus within both countries on the level of trust and strategic engagement between them, which has remained over the years, regardless of the governments in power: in 1971, Indira Gandhi and Leonid Brezhnev signed the Indo-Soviet Treaty of Peace and Friendship while in 2000, Prime Minister Vajpayee and President Putin entered into an Indo-Russian strategic partnership. Fourth, Russia can provide alternative routes for India’s energy and power needs as well as for its security concerns.Clearly the Russians are worried about the growing proximity between India and the US. The joint military exercises between India and US allies’ Singapore, Australia and Japan were viewed with concern by both China and Russia, especially since India has chosen to move slowly on the India-Russia-China trilateral initiatives. Prime Minister Manmohan Singh was careful in Russia to indicate that India’s is a balanced and independent foreign policy. How Russia reads this will decide its future stance towards India.The writer is a professor in international relations, Jawaharlal Nehru University
