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This is an archive article published on September 15, 2000

The perils of amity

In Washington, this is the season for change -- in every sense. Soon humidity will give way to crisp, cool breezes which will mark the beg...

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In Washington, this is the season for change — in every sense. Soon humidity will give way to crisp, cool breezes which will mark the beginning of fall when leaves will change colour. In the White House, a presidential innings is coming to a close and a senatorial one is being launched.

Pollsters who had a few months ago declared George W. Bush a winner in the November election are now placing Al Gore so far ahead that there is palpable anxiety in the Bush camp. This has shifted focus on the accuracy of opinion polls. The issue being posed is whether polls reflect public opinion or shape it. The pollsters, meanwhile, are having a field day churning out predictions. If there were 26 opinion polls during the 1980 campaign, the figure this year is 136 — and there are seven more weeks to go.

Against this fast changing backdrop, the Vajpayee visit is taking place. Indeed the visit began when there were more heads of governments in New York (for the millennium summit) than are likely to assemble in any one place ever. Therefore if there is no media interest in the US in his visit, one is tempted to attribute it all to the hectic season. That would be foolish. The fact is that Americans are historically riveted only on themselves. Just take a look at their sports. A few clubs play competitive baseball and they call it the World Series. The rest of the world is presumed beaten.

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This level of self-absorption leaves no room for any world leader to be really noticed in this country. This being the state of play, there should be no wonder that the Vajpayee visit has not set the Potomac on fire.

Thank God, officials had the sense to announce that he will undergo a knee surgery in October. This will set at rest speculations about his other presumed affiliations — for the time being at least. There is another reason why the visit has looked a low key one even to some of us. There is that singular absence of any contentious issue on the agenda. Neither CTBT nor dialogue with Pakistan on Kashmir is being discussed. Of course the Americans read out their known script on the nuclear issue and on the need for an Indo-Pak dialogue. But it was more as a matter of formality.

Yes, the prime minister’s speech at Asia Society surprised many friends of India. "It lacked Vajpayee’s characteristic restraint," says Prof Stephen Cohen of Brookings. "His attack on Pakistan was most unlike him. Criticism of Pakistan is valid but devoting several paragraphs to it was excessive."

If there is one issue that is dominating the visit, it is the economic agenda. And in this not only is the US-India business council playing a crucial role but even the CII and FICCI are demonstrating considerable vigour. Never has the extraordinary economic clout of the Indian community in the US been so crucial in shaping every detail of the itinerary. Credit must go to Ambassador Naresh Chandra for arranging the PM’s meeting with so many powerful Congressmen; but it must be added that behind every successful request for a meeting was the clout of some Indian-American businessman.

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Some other themes have proceeded parallel to the visit. There was some expectation on part of the Americans that India might take some bold new initiatives as co-convenor of the Community of Democracies project. This is one of the areas of Indo-US partnership spelt out in the "vision" statement during Bill Clinton’s India visit. In fact, the foreign ministers of the eight countries (including India) which convened the Community of Democracies conference in Warsaw met over dinner in New York. One of the issues which has provoked much debate is whether World Bank and IMF loans can be linked to the democratic ideal. A speech by the World Bank president on this theme in Seoul earlier this year created a bit of a storm. James Wolfensohn said democracy could well be the criterion for disbursing World Bank loans. Americans are lobbying hard for this to be accepted. Their argument is that democracy, transparency and the rule of law ensure proper utilisation of resources. India is yet to show its hand on thistheme.

Another theme that has surfaced on the margins is that of Indian troops in Sierra Leone. Since UN peacekeeping has emerged as one of the most important themes during the UN General Assembly session, the question of Sierra Leone almost automatically came up as an important current peacekeeping mission.

A new story has emanated from Freetown, somewhat embarrassing to the UNAMSIL Force Commander Gen Vijay Jetley. UNAMSIL was preceded by ECOMOG, a combination of West African troops led by Nigeria. UNAMSIL, particularly its Indian force commander, was resented by the Africans, notably Nigeria. Jetley had evidently written notes to Army Headquarters in New Delhi laying the blame for all the mess in UNAMSIL on the Nigerians and the ill-equipped African contingents. He also charged Nigerian officials of involvement in diamond smuggling. This confidential note has been leaked to newspapers like the òf40óWashington Post. Jetley’s position has become untenable. The Americans find themselves between two of their friends, India and Nigeria.

I am not for a moment suggesting that the development was worthy of being taken up at the prime minister’s level. But this is the sort of story shaping up on the margins of the visit.

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American self-absorption leaves no room for any world leader to be really noticed

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