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This is an archive article published on March 7, 2004

The mutual fund option is the most efficient for the individual

Which way are the markets headed in the months to come?That is anybody's call. But I think that in the next one or two months, the probabili...

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Which way are the markets headed in the months to come?
That is anybody’s call. But I think that in the next one or two months, the probability of a fall is lower than the probability of rise.

What strategy should one use to buy an IPO?
This is the time when no bad IPO can think of coming to the market because they are competing with big names like ONGC, CMC, Petronet and Power Trading Corporation. This is the best of the lot we’ve ever had. The small investor should look at value. Is he getting a Rs 10 thing at Rs 5? Today, everybody wants to get into IPOs. Why? Because they have seen shares of Punjab National Bank go from Rs 45 to Rs 250. They want instant gratification. But no one sells when the time comes, they let it rot.

Is it better to invest in the secondary market?
Whether an investor buys in the secondary or primary market, he should look at the source of value. In fact, it’s much easier to buy in the secondary market. You put a sauda (trade) now and the deal is done. In an IPO, you have to wait for a long time. And you end up paying almost the same price. Look at the Patni offer. The share was sold at Rs 230 in the primary market and is still trading at those levels. But at the same time, if you think that fundamentally the company is a good investment for the next five to10 years it is better to go for the IPO.

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Would you say this is the time for the retail investor to invest for the long-term?
Most definitely. The next 10 years for this country are going to be more optimistic than the last 10 years. But you say ‘retail investors’ and you are actually talking of ‘retail speculators’. Whenever you buy something with a definite scheme to sell, it is speculation. It could be long-term speculation, but it speculation. What is investing? It is like partnership, like what I have with Motilal Oswal. It is my company and I have no plans about selling my stake in the company. I don’t have any advice for the speculator.

Where should the retail person invest?
I have a great respect for individuals who have an acumen for investing, let us leave them aside. Then there is a class which thinks they are fast, but they are below average or at best average. They cannot beat the professional fund managers. The mutual fund vehicle is the most efficient one for retail investors. With a superior vehicle, can the fund managers be worse than what you are doing? And if that is so, why not leave that job to them?

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