NEW DELHI, APRIL 19: If Jayalalitha with her 18 MPs brought down the BJP-led government, Mulayam Singh Yadav with his flock of 20 is today the biggest imponderable in the formation of the next government.The reason is simple: Mulayam will be the bigger loser if a Sonia Gandhi-headed government comes into existence. In one swift stroke, the Congress will start to revive in Uttar Pradesh - at the expense of both Mulayam and the BJP. The Muslims are anyway looking at the Congress with new eyes since Sonia Gandhi took over. The upper castes, particularly the Brahmins, unhappy with the continuation of Kalyan Singh in Uttar Pradesh, may turn to the Congress.Mulayam knows this only too well. That is why he would like a Third Force government, supported by the Congress. For all his opposition to the BJP, Vajpayee as caretaker prime minister is still a better bet than a Congress takeover. That too, by Sonia whose family is identified with Uttar Pradesh.And yet, beyond a point, the Samajwadi Party (SP) leadercannot be seen to be opposing the formation of an alternative government. He met Sonia and Jayalalitha today and both went out of their way to mollify him. The Congress chief has asked Uttar Pradesh Congress Committee (UPCC) chief Salman Khurshid to go easy on statements against Mulayam.Only yesterday, Khurshid had talked about the possibility of the Congress forging an alliance with the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) in Uttar Pradesh. This has further rattled an already annoyed Mulayam. In their ongoing battle with each other, the SP leader had dubbed Khurshid an RSS agent after 59 leaders of the Samajwadi party joined the Congress in Mulayam's pocketborough, Mainpuri.Mulayam today gave Jayalalitha a reception worthy of a prime minister. He stood outside his house, waiting to greet her along with the horde of mediapersons with her. The moment a Tata Sierra drove in with the Samajwadi Party general secretary Amar Singh in it - frantically waving his hands to indicate that the lady had arrived - Mulayamrushed forward with a bouquet towards the second Sierra which held the AIADMK chief.The two talked for over half an hour. And yet, meeting over, Mulayam was as non-committal as he had been earlier about supporting a Congress government or about the shape of an alternative arrangement.The SP has insisted on joining the government because it would get a certain leverage in Uttar Pradesh. But CPM leader Harkishen Singh Surjeet has been trying to persuade Mulayam otherwise, arguing that it is in his interest to stay out of the government. If he joins hands with the Congress, he cannot attack the party, which he has been doing, for the demolition of the Babri Masjid in order to keep the Muslims on his side. He would at least have a fig leaf if he was outside it.Hemmed in by all sides, Mulayam may ultimately have to fall in line. Knowing this, he is likely to bargain hard. With his eyes on Uttar Pradesh, the least he would want is the BJP government to be sent packing, early elections in the state, and agovernor of his choice.
