The freshman psephologists

The college started compiling opinion polls for every election, including by-elections, from 2000. For this election, students and professors polled 5,000 people and took 130 to 150 samples from each constituency. The students met people at random for the first round in December and the second in April.

Department head S. Rajanayagam, who is aware of the criticism surrounding opinion polls, says that it is merely an academic exercise and shouldn’t be looked at otherwise. ‘‘An opinion polls is just an opinion poll.It’s not the final outcome. It’s a scientific tool to know the dominant trend at that particular time,’’ he said, and added, ‘‘We go into a deeper study of cultural factor.’’

Even among media circles there is a mixed response to the opinion polls. The criticism ranges from it being a scam to being one-sided. The poll said the trend is in favour of the Democratic Progressive Alliance in 35 constituencies. In 10 other seats the poll has concluded that lack of unity within the DPA and support that women extended to the AIADMK-BJP alliance would result in a strong fight.

‘‘It is understood that the fight is between the DMK and the AIADMK. National issues have not fully trickled down to the minds of the electorate. Anti-incumbency is there. But women are more favourably disposed towards Jaya. Because of alliance DMK has an edge. Anti-incumbency is not dominant,’’ said Rajanayagam. Around 67.8 per cent of the respondents were unhappy with the performance of the government. 62.1 per cent of the respondents supported the DPA, while 31.7 per cent supported the AIADMK-BJP combine.

The students who get to work on the polls are handpicked from 400 B.Sc Visual Communication students in their first second and third years.

In the 2001 Assembly polls the department predicted that the trend was in AIADMK’s favour. ‘‘Then they said we were in favour of the AIADMK. Now they say we favour the DMK. We have maintained our academic and intellectual neutrality,’’ claims Rajanayagam.

Most opinion polls in the state have given the edge to the Progressive National Alliance consisting of the DMK, Congress, PMK, IUML and MDMK. AIADMK chief Jayalalithaa has already told people in the state to ignore the polls saying that it was conducted by vested interests. The AIADMK is almost fighting a lone battle with the BJP not having much of an influence in the state.

‘‘We find that people are affiliated to the parties and through their caste and religion. Only afterwards does the candidate’s personal credibility and local issues come,’’ says Rajanayagam.

He adds that his team is well aware that people change their minds at the last minute too. ‘‘Political campaigns by politicians conducted at a massive level is a source of inspiration. Jaya Vaiko or Karunanidhi can inspire people and draw them. People can change their mind at the end also,’’ he said.