That’s the limit, say scientists

PARIS, SEPTEMBER 7: For the past century, athletes have consistently shattered records, but they are now close to the very limits of human potential, according to the bleak view of some scientists. Without help from illicit substances, the top athletes will make only tiny, gradual improvements on records over the next 50 years before beginning to hit the limits, the British weekly New Scientist reports in Saturday’s issue.

“The improvement is real. But it’s starting to level off in most events,” Francois Peronnet a sports physiologist at the University of Montreal, says. Robert Schutz, a statistician at the University of British Columbia, has made predictions based on past performances in seven track and field events and projected them for the future.

By 2050, the marathon will be run in 2hr 2min 39sec, just three minutes faster than the current best time of 2:05:42, he says.

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Schutz has also estimated the “a symptotic value” for each sport the point at which no further progress can be made. He predicts the ultimate time in the 100 metres will be 9.51sec, just under three-tenths of a second faster than the best today.

New records may continue to be set randomly, but overall the trend is towards flattening performance curves, highlighting the limits of the human body, the experts say.