Thackeray vs Thackeray

The SS supremo declared Uddhav his heir apparent a few years ago and it is since then the internecine rivalry has come to surface, creating not just one but multiple factions in the organisation. Perhaps Narayan Rane saw the writing on the wall and chose to walk out on the Thackerays before the landmine exploded.

In this case, the landmine is laid by the nephew, Raj. He has not only challenged the abilities of Uddhav to lead the organisation, but has also condemned the coterie surrounding the executive president as ‘‘nincompoop clerks’’.

Raj is a man of action. He built the Vidyarthi Sena and organised a large number of boys and girls under the banner of Shiv Udyog. He is a flamboyant and streetsmart leader who copies Balasaheb in toto—in dress as well as jokes and mimicry.

Uddhav thinks that he is an MD of the organisation and says that he wants it to run like a company. But when it comes to elections or agitations, Uddhav uses the same language as his father. He urged the Sena activists to attack MSEB board offices and defended the attacks on the electricity board employees when the state suffered heavy loadshedding. He has also called for attacks on shops selling Valentine Day cards. So it is not as if he is any more peaceloving than his rabblerousing cousin.

BE that as it may. Uddhav has the official mantle now and Raj has challenged him. Raj has not as yet revealed his strategy but it is clear that his options are extremely limited. He cannot join the Congress now because Narayan Rane has not only upstaged him but has also won the by-election by a record margin in the heartland of Konkan. If Raj joins the Congress, he will be the ‘‘follower’’, not the leader.

If he joins the Nationalist Congress Party led by Sharad Pawar, he will be one among many ambitious skulduggers who are constantly conspiring against each other.

Moreover, if he joins either Congress, he loses considerable credibility because the Shiv Sena followers have been brought up on an anti-Congress diet. Rane is already realising how difficult it is to live with that anti-Congress rhetoric. But Rane, with his daredevil approach and mass following, will survive and will also grow in stature because the present leadership of the party has proved to be totally disastrous.

Raj has no option but to float his own parallel Sena—it could be named ‘Shiv-Raj Sena’ or simply ‘Marathi Sena’ or perhaps ‘Maharashtra Sena’. Raj wants to cash on the feelings of the Marathi Mumbaikars that they are being sidelined in the process of globalisation and ‘Shanghaisation’. There is a vast unemployed lumpen youth which wants a militant mouthpiece and leader, and Raj may well project himself as the ‘real heir’ of the spirit of the Sena while his cousin is merely heir to the property of the father.

Raj has a constituency of sorts among the students. He has also networked among the artists, theatre groups, young entrepreneurs, the film industry and in the media. But that does not mean he will have a walkover. Hardly any MLA will switch loyalty to him because then he will have to resign from his seat. Already, some disgruntled and hardcore loyalists of Rane have declared that they will resign their seats and seek reelection on the Congress ticket. They can trust Rane to get them reelected, but not necessarily Raj. So even those who are not happy with Uddhav’s leadership will cling to the main Shiv Sena and to their seat.

In effect, therefore, there will be a three-way split of the SS vote. The traditional SS followers, and those who are still enthralled by Balasaheb, will continue to be with the main organisation. Those who have no hope within the organisation and are looking for action and therefore do not want to join the Congress, will support Raj. And those who feel that Rane can accommodate them in the Congress front will join him.

The disintegration of the Sena will bring windfall benefits to the NCP and also the Congress. However, the NCP stands to benefit more because many of the Sena followers in smaller towns had migrated to NCP in the past. The next-gen of the NCP has some sort of a bonhomie with the Sena gangs. The NCP leadership has considerable control over the sugar industry, cooperative banks and zilla parsihads. The Congress is a weaker partner, though it has a chief minister and a leadership at the Centre.

It is in this queered pitch that Raj and Uddhav have to contend with the muscle power of Rane, who now also enjoys the backing of the state machinery. The fact is that the Shiv Sena is no more what it was and is unlikely to gain the same notorious status it had.

What was the legacy of the Sena in the last 40 years? Nothing except a powerful brand name, perpetuated by a kind of local terrorism and the media, which loved the page-3 hobnobbing of the Thackerays with Bollywood. It did not give, before, during or after its rule, any new idea, any new institution, or even any new plan for Mumbai, where it was born out of the frustration and anger of the Marathi citydwellers.

There may not be any celebration of its demise, but nobody will regret the death of the Sena either.