Tenth Plan to suffer from 9th Plan performance

According to estimates, there has been a shortfall of 8.6 per cent in the gross budgetary support (GBS) of Rs 2,05,290 crore, provided by the Centre, for the Plan. Only a little below 50 per cent of the projected budgetary resources to be provided by the Centre for its own Plan, could be made available during the first three months of the Plan. Similarly, internal and extra budgetary resources of Rs 1,33,403 crore raised by the central public sector enterprises were also lower by 18 per cent as compared to Plan projections during the first three years of the Ninth Plan.

As far as states were concerned, only 44.4 per cent of the projected resources have been mobilised by the states during the first three years of the Ninth Plan. There has also been a massive deterioration in the contribution of own funds of the states to Plan resources and the additional resources mobilisation has been low leading to increased dependence on the borrowed funds.

As compared with the 6.5 per cent economic growth during the Eighth Plan period (1992-97), the Ninth Plan is witnessing a deceleration. Although the growth target for the Ninth Plan was revised downward to 6.5 per cent, it will not be realised. The average growth during the first three years of the Ninth Plan (1997-2000) was 6.1 per cent. The economy during the remaining two years (2000-02) need to grow at 7.1 per cent to make up for the shortfall during the initial years. This, however, is unlikely and the first quarter estimates reveal that growth rate has further slipped to 5.8 per cent.

Two main sectors of the economy, agriculture and manufacturing, will not be able to meet the Ninth Plan growth target of 3.9 per cent and 7.1 per cent, respectively. While the agriculture sector has recorded a growth of 2.7 per cent during the first three years, the manufacturing sector grew by 5.3 per cent. Agriculture and manufacturing need to grow at the accelerated rate of 5.7% and 10.25 per cent, respectively during 2000-02 to achieve the Plan targets.

Unemployment scenario worsens

MUMBAI: There has been a sharp increase in unemployment rates, both in urban and rural areas, especially during the course of the Ninth Plan. The National Sample Survey Organisation (NSSO) data as well as live employment exchange register point to the worsening unemployment scenario.

Although the Planning Commission has underplayed growing unemployment while making a presentation on Mid-term Plan appraisal, the NSSO figures reveal a scary picture on the employment front. The NSSO survey, based on six months data, suggests that unemployment rates are at a very high level and in some segments worst than what prevailed in 1987-88. The survey points out that unemployment rate for males in urban area which improved from 5.16 per cent in 1987-88 to 3.35 per cent in 1994-95 has started deteriorating in 1995-96. The unemployment rate for males in urban area increased from 3.35 per cent in 1994-95 to 3.85 per cent in 1995-96.