Suu Kyi’s release looks a long way off

“The three demands of the protesters — lowering consumer prices, release of Daw Aung San Suu Kyi and political prisoners, and national reconciliation — cannot be satisfied through protest,” the paper said, attaching an honorific to her name.

“Now, those responsible are making arrangements to draft the state constitution and collect the list of voters,” it added. “When the state constitution is approved, the fulfillment of the three demands will be within reach.”

Holding a referendum on a new constitution is the fourth stage in a seven-step “roadmap to democracy”.

For Suu Kyi, who has spent nearly 12 of the last 18 years in prison or under house arrest, the omens are not good.

Stage One of the roadmap — a National Convention to draw up the “detailed basic principles” of the charter — took 14 years.

Furthermore, Stage Two — “step-by-step implementation of the process necessary for the emergence of a genuine and disciplined democratic state” — is so unclear few know what it means, let alone when it can be completed.

Stage Three is drafting the constitution, a process that many thought the National Convention was meant to have been doing for the last 14 years of on-off meetings, most of which have been boycotted by Suu Kyi’s National League for Democracy (NLD).

The NLD won a massive election victory in 1990 only to be denied power by the army, which first seized power in 1962. After last month’s protests, Senior General Than Shwe, whose personal loathing for Suu Kyi is well known, offered direct talks with the 62-year-old if she abandoned “confrontation” and support for sanctions and “utter devastation”.