Staying the course

But Iraq started getting boring too, so now McCain has turned his restless attention back to Afghanistan 8212; maybe because Barack Obama keeps hammering away at the issue. Obama, who8217;s been fairly consistent on Afghanistan for six years now, is either the rare politician who doesn8217;t suffer from ADD, or he8217;s smart enough to take his meds. On Tuesday, McCain released a 8220;comprehensive strategy for victory in Afghanistan.8221; Previous claims of success were forgotten.

8220;The status quo is unacceptable,8221; McCain8217;s campaign declared, but, 8220;McCain will turn around the war.8221; Right! Until we move on to the next country! Remember, Iran is still high on McCain8217;s list of bright, shiny objects. I don8217;t mean to pick on McCain here. ADD is rampant in the corridors of power, and McCain is far from the only sufferer. George W. Bush? A case too obvious to belabor. Congress could use some Ritalin too.

And foreign policy is hardly the only area where the ADD epidemic is causing serious problems: The subprime loan crisis could probably have been nipped in the bud if anyone in power had been capable of paying attention for more than 12 seconds. And don8217;t get me started on energy policy. But 8212; ahem 8212; let8217;s not get distracted here. Back to Afghanistan! Let8217;s think for a minute 8212; just a short little minute, I promise 8212; about what it would mean to 8220;turn around the war8221; in Afghanistan.

Depends what the goal is: Make Afghanistan a stable democracy? Destroy the Taliban? Eliminate the link between illicit Afghan opium production and terrorist financing? Capture Osama bin Laden? No matter how you look at it, it8217;s not going to be a job well-suited to a nation in the grip of an attention deficit disorder epidemic.

Consider the scope of the problem. In recent months, more US troops have died in Afghanistan than in Iraq. According to the Los Angeles Times, in the first three months of 2008, insurgent attacks were up by nearly 40 per cent in just the eastern provinces, compared with the same time period in 2007. Overall, according to the International Crisis Group, suicide bombings went up by 600 per cent between 2005 and 2007, and insurgent attacks by 400 per cent. The Afghan insurgents, who apparently have a plentiful supply of Ritalin, are paying close attention to successful Iraqi insurgent and terrorist tactics and studiously applying those lessons.

Meanwhile, US and NATO troops operate under confusingly different rules of engagement and report to different command structures. The Afghan government remains weak and corrupt; the humanitarian situation remains fragile. And when things get hot, terrorists, Taliban and Afghan insurgents find convenient safe harbor across the border in Pakistan one of the largest recipients of US military aid, while elements of Pakistan8217;s government turn a blind eye.

Unfortunately, we can8217;t afford to ignore or abandon Afghanistan. With its flammable mixture of violent extremism, illicit drug profits and a tottering nuclear-armed neighbor Pakistan, the situation there 8212; unlike that in Iraq 8212; presents a critical threat to US and global security.

We need to make a long-term commitment to Afghanistan, but it won8217;t be easy. At best, we8217;ll withdraw most of our troops from Iraq within two years and redeploy many in Afghanistan, but that would still be a far cry from the 400,000 troops the outgoing commander of NATO forces in Afghanistan thinks are really needed. Bye-bye, Iraq quagmire, hello, Afghanistan quagmire! At worst, we8217;ll need to maintain a massive troop presence in two countries at once All Quagmire, All the Time.

And no US military strategy will succeed if it8217;s not accompanied by a regional political and diplomatic strategy: Stabilising Afghanistan is inextricably linked to diffusing Pakistan8217;s political crises as well. Doing this adequately will take resources and patient, sustained attention.

But don8217;t mourn: organise! Start stockpiling that Ritalin now, folks: Whoever is in the White House next January is really going to need it.