Tamil Nadu Chief Minister J. Jayalalithaa’s confident outbursts of late underline one obvious fact: her political opponents in Tamil Nadu are in a state of disarray. There is a crisis of confidence in the DMK, both within the Assembly and outside it. In the process, the party is failing to translate any anti-incumbency feelings within Tamil Nadu to its advantage. As long as DMK supremo M. Karunanidhi was in his prime, the party was a potent outfit, sometimes wielding power and at other times fighting vigorously to wrest it. Today, he appears increasingly a spent force. Nothing symbolises this more than the fact that in the last 15 months the AIADMK has been in power, Karunanidhi has shied away from the Assembly except for one brief appearance — and that only in order to sign the muster to escape disqualification. Robbed of the undisputed oratorial skills of its tallest leader, the DMK has looked rudderless and disoriented.To add to the woes of the DMK are the unseemly battles between the supporters of two politician sons of Karunanidhi, Stalin and Azhagiri. If these battles are anything to go by, the DMK is in for hard times. As so often happens with towering leaders in India, Karunanidhi has been taking pains to ensure that the mantle of succession falls on son Stalin. During his better days, Stalin seemed to measure up to the task. But it is in times of adversity that qualities of leadership are tested and, unfortunately, Stalin has been found wanting on this score. While Azhagiri only poses a feeble challenge to Stalin, there is increasing evidence that the man himself is no match for his father in political astuteness. This bodes ill for the DMK, which has a formidable adversary in Jayalalithaa.As for the Congress, although much is being made of its merger with the Tamil Maanila Congress, it continues to be a marginal factor in the state’s politics. At least for the foreseeable future, it is difficult to perceive the Congress posing an effective challenge to the Dravidian parties. Unfortunately, the Congress too is riven by dissensions in Tamil Nadu. These factors are together resulting in two perceptible trends — it is shoring up Jayalalithaa’s political fortunes which in turn is causing the NDA government at the Centre to warm up towards her.
