Is the Congress (I) prepared to fight the forthcoming Assembly elections? No, I do not mean the polls to Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Rajasthan and Mizoram. We have all known for years just when these particular polls were due; if the Congress (I) has not spent the better part of the last twelve months preparing for the forthcoming battle then all I can say is that its leaders are far more naive than they ought to be! So which other Assembly polls are due? How about those in Kerala and Andhra Pradesh? It bears remembering that the Andhra Pradesh assembly was elected in 1999, at the same time as the current Lok Sabha, and that its term does not expire until well into 2004. As for Kerala, it went to the polls in 2001, which means that the Assembly still has half its term to run. You may be forgiven, then, for wondering why I speak so glibly of both these states going to the hustings simultaneously. The answer lies in two political phenomena with which Sonia Gandhi should be familiar — the first being a sympathy wave and the second being an Opposition that can wound but not kill. Which is which? If I have read the signs correctly, I think Chandrababu Naidu is preparing the ground for the dissolution of the Andhra Pradesh assembly and early polls in the state. The Telugu Desam boss believes that the failed attempt to murder him while he was on his way to Tirupati last month has led to a massive surge in sympathy for him. All those images of the chief minister stepping out of his shattered car with blood dripping down his face would have a major impact on the electorate. There are other reasons of course for Naidu’s inclination for early polls, not least among them the fact that his state has finally had a decent monsoon following a string of bad years. All this leads up to the fact that for him there may never be a better time to hold state elections. If I am correct in my analysis, we may hear Chandrababu Naidu asking for a dissolution very soon, possibly in even as little a space of time as a week or two. (To be honest, I am a little surprised that it has not already happened; the closing of the Afro-Asian Games, with the media present in full strength, could have been the ideal time.) But is the Congress (I) ready to face the people just now? No one knows better than Sonia Gandhi the power of a sympathy wave. In 1984, the late Rajiv Gandhi was carried to supreme power atop an emotional tsunami. In 1991, the Congress (I) unexpectedly came to power because of the assassination of Rajiv Gandhi himself. And Congressmen would also do well to remember that the voters of Andhra Pradesh are particularly likely to be carried away by strong feelings. The sympathy wave of 1984 failed in Andhra Pradesh because of a strong, counter-emotion — sympathy for N.T. Rama Rao after the botched attempt to oust him in a coup courtesy N. Bhaskara Rao. In 1991, T.N. Seshan had decreed that the polls in Andhra Pradesh would take place in stages. As I remember, two-thirds of the seats that voted before Rajiv Gandhi’s death went to the Telugu Desam, two-thirds of those that voted later fell to the Congress (I). What do Congressmen have in the kitty to counter Chandrababu Naidu today? Moving on to Kerala, you may recall that I wrote in my last column of the war brewing in the Congress (I), thanks to K. Karunakaran. Sonia Gandhi and her acolytes have been thoroughly unsuccessful in their attempts to rein in the veteran leader. I hear that Chief Minister A.K. Antony has, however, finally got sick of the constant jibes from his foe. The Karunakaran camp was planning — with Left Democratic Front support it goes without saying — to move a motion against the speaker of the Kerala Assembly as their opening gambit. The chief minister has decided to take the initiative by demanding a Vote of Confidence in the assembly. The Congress “High Command” has proved to be utterly useless during this crisis. The latest brainwave from 10, Janpath, was to grovel before the Muslim League, begging it not to desert the United Democratic Front. (Never mind the fact that the Muslim League has been shunned by the Marxists for over a decade!) At this rate, the voters of Kerala will fail to have even a shred of respect for the Congress (I). It may be just as well then if Chief Minister Antony decides to act. Assume for argument’s sake that the ministry is pulled down. Can Karunakaran and the CPI(M) get together to form a stable ministry (one that will not dissolve in a puddle before a year is out)? Sonia Gandhi should recognise this situation, it is precisely what happened after she pulled down the Vajpayee ministry in 1999. The result was that the Congress (I) registered its worst performance ever. Is there any reason why Antony, assuming he is defeated in the Assembly, should not succeed in reaping a sympathy wave of his own? For reasons that are as pragmatic as they are principled it makes sense for the Congress (I) to take a firm line with Karunakaran. The opinion polls tell us that most voters — meaning those persons who actually brave the weather to stand in a line and vote — have made up their minds well before Election Day. If this is right, any campaigning which Sonia Gandhi wants to undertake in Madhya Pradesh and so on is largely useless. She would do better to concentrate on Kerala and Andhra Pradesh. As a quip doing the rounds in Congress headquarters goes: “Soniaji’s biggest problem isn’t MP but ‘AK’ — not ‘Antony and Karunakaran’, though they are bad enough — but ‘Andhra and Kerala’!”
