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This is an archive article published on June 20, 2000

Sliding into trouble

All the signs are pointing one way: Jammu and Kashmir is slipping deeper into trouble. A special session of the State Assembly to debate t...

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All the signs are pointing one way: Jammu and Kashmir is slipping deeper into trouble. A special session of the State Assembly to debate the report of the State Autonomy Committee is now being held. It is hard to imagine that anything can prevent the National Conference from using its large majority in the House to pass a resolution in favour of greater autonomy for the state and the accompanying panoply of new titles and powers for state leaders. Farooq Abdullah has indicated clearly enough this is what he desires.

There are several problems here. In all the years that Abdullah has gone on about the need for the restoration of the status quo before 1953, he has never explained to the people of the different regions of Jammu and Kashmir why more power for Srinagar is the answer to all their prayers. The fact is more autonomy is less essential for their well-being than good governance under the present set-up. Popular support for autonomy is still restricted to one part of the state. Whatever the feelings of the people of the Valley (and they are as liable today to be sceptical or simply fatigued), the people of Jammu and Ladakh are not persuaded it will be good for them.

Leaders of the Ladhakh Buddhist Association, who are organising a week-long protest against the devolution of greater power to Srinagar, say they will be better off with Union Territory status.

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Abdullah’s timing suggests sheer political expediency rather than genuine conviction. That he has chosen this juncture to press his claims is very revealing about his motives. No doubt, proper form was observed by obtaining recommendations from a committee but the committee was not broad-based enough to inspire total confidence. Significantly, its recommendations were withheld for more than a year. There are two reasons, both linked to the government’s poor record in office. One, the release of Hurriyat leaders from jail presents Abdullah with a political challenge from regional forces such as he has not had to deal with for some time. Two, elections in a year’s time necessitate a strong political platform. With nothing else to show for itself, the government has decided to make a pitch for autonomy. It may suit the National Conference in the run-up to the elections to be seen to be battling the Centre but it also risks arousing popular sentiment within the state which could become unmanageable.

It would be less of a masquerade if the autonomy demand were moored to the present, instead of the past and to practical needs, instead of raw emotions.It will be surprising if any good comes out of the political games in Srinagar. Meanwhile, with the Army anticipating a fresh influx of militants 3,000 of whom are training in camps in Pakistan and POK, it looks like a continuation of terrorist violence and counter-measures for Jammu and Kashmir.

In the midst of all this the Centre’s peace initiative consisting of the release of some political prisoners and talk of political negotiations appears dismayingly to have ended as suddenly as it started. A DD channel for and about J&K is a good idea but the Centre seems to have gone on holiday after that. More and bigger ideas are urgently needed to prevent conditions getting worse.

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