Sisters in arms

The blossoming of friendship between the two formidable ladies of the AIADMK and the Trinamool Congress — and their kind words — might come as a pleasant surprise to the Prime Minister. At the minimum what this could mean is a respite from the two attacking each other. But Atal Behari Vajpayee should not bet on a trouble-free relationship with them singly or jointly. A near euphoric Mamata Banerjee emerged from the meeting in Chennai full of praise for the Prime Minister and her new-found sister Jayalalitha. Most of what transpired has been kept confidential. But it appears the two see eye to eye on several issues, including the need to dismiss the DMK government in Tamil Nadu, and have decided to stand together behind Vajpayee in the midst of his troubles with his own party. As always, opportunism appears in the guise of virtue.

The attempt to combine AIADMK-Trinamool Congress forces at this juncture is not at all inexplicable. Om Prakash Chautala has caused cracks in the ruling coalition when he walkedout of it. Those cracks may not be particularly serious and indeed may be papered over quite soon. The differences within the BJP and the inability of the party managers to overcome them are more significant. Any signs of erosion in the ranks of an 18-party alliance are bound to enhance each constituent’s sense of its own importance. From that to trying to coordinate action and demands is the next logical step. The AIADMK and the Trinamool Congress have been the first to move in this direction. Others could follow suit. So Vajpayee should take all the promises from Chennai with a large pinch of salt. What Jayalalitha and Mamata Banerjee share in common is well-known: a combative style of politics, persistent demands for the dismissal of state governments, a populist agenda and a propensity for fishing in trouble waters. With each now intending to reinforce the other, the pressures on the Prime Minister will increase.

At the same time the new sisterhood could fall apart with as much facility as it cametogether. Mamata Banerjee, outspoken about corruption at other times, chose to say nothing about the central government notification transferring cases against Jayalalitha from special courts to sessions courts. Such tactfulness is not going to enhance her image. Furthermore, if the BJP fails to be evenhanded about favours in future, the sisterhood will be strained. Sooner rather than later it will become apparent if any specific agreements were reached in Chennai. Attending each other’s rallies may bring out larger crowds and more media attention. But the two are aiming for more than that. Jayalalitha lacks the clout and numerical strength she once enjoyed after the BJP managed to split her alliance with smaller parties in Tamil Nadu. Mamata Banerjee lacks the kind of financial resources her “sister” can command at election time. Apart from these linkages the two can be useful to each other during street demonstrations. It may be a natural alliance of two demanding politicians but not one with very much ofa future beyond the bargaining table.