Reverse swing?

But who is responsible for this ‘feel-good’ factor or the lack of it? Should the credit or the blame be taken by the Central government or the state government or should they both share the credit and the blame?

As far as these voters are concerned, if they ‘feel good’, they give the credit to both the Centre and the state—with the Centre coming out a bit more in front than the state. On the other hand, if they do not feel good, it is the state, very much more than the Centre, that gets the stick for a poorly done job.

• The leadership stakes

Possession, as they say, is nine-tenths of the law and that is proven by a massive 80 per cent rating for Atal Behari Vajpayee as a “good” national leader. Then there is a large gap, after which all the other leaders are closely clustered. Sonia Gandhi and L K Advani are vying for the second slot.

• Rahul or Priyanka?

Since Rahul Gandhi has just entered the electoral scene, we decided to check ‘‘Who is better liked?’’ Conventional wisdom had it that Priyanka, with her friendly and outgoing manner and the Indira Gandhi style, would clearly have the measure of her supposedly shy brother. But the polls in these 57 constituencies suggest otherwise with Rahul being liked more than his sister. The opinion poll was conducted a short time after Rahul had announced his candidature for Amethi and that may have helped to improve his score.

• Bollywood goes to Delhi

The past few months have seen a spate of filmstars making a beeline for politics. It is, of course, not new. South Indian states have a record of stars reaching commanding political heights. MGR and NTR founded and led their political parties, while Jayalalithaa is the undisputed supremo of her party. However, recent years have seen the entry of Bollywood politicians and this year there has been an absolute flood with even allegations that political parties are paying some of the actors to ‘perform’. So, what do the voters in these nine states think about filmstars entering the political arena? What do film stars bring to the table? Do they just attract crowds or do they also help convert those crowds into votes? The voters in these nine states feel that their ability to attract crowds far outweighs their ability to win votes for the party they support.

• Our dedicated MPs

Over the years, inured by an endless series of scams and scandals, the Indian voter has become quite cynical about people in public life. What are our politicians up to? Are they keen to serve us or do they just make money out of our misfortunes?

The findings of this phase of the poll suggest that the voters of India, like those of most countries, display some schizophrenic tendencies. On the one hand, by a majority of 3 to 2, they commend our politicians for doing a good job. But when asked whether politicians are more interested in making money or serving the nation, by a 3 to 1 majority, they accuse our netas of being more enamoured of money than the nation. So, does one take that to mean that while they are making money for themselves, they are ‘delivering’ governance for us?

• Howzzat?

This opinion poll was conducted while the cricket Test matches against Pakistan were being played. Cricket is probably the first religion of India. Our cricket administration, for years, has had its share of politicians, bureaucrats and businessmen. So, when a cricket tour of Pakistan was arranged so close to the elections, there were murmurs about the impact that it would have on the elections. There were also reports of concerns in some government quarters of the possibility of a negative impact on the government’s electoral prospects were the team to lose.

The voters do believe that the NDA is taking advantage of the cricket tour of Pakistan and a majority feels that there is nothing wrong in the NDA taking advantage of India’s performance. So, the win in the one-dayers and the Test series will probably help the government to generate a bit more of the ‘‘feel-good’’ factor.

• What about Gujarat?

Gujarat is the only 20 seat-plus state which is going to the polls entirely in the first phase of these elections. While in the other states, the opinion polls will be conducted in other phases as well, for Gujarat, there will be only an exit poll that is left. The Gujarat voter is happy with his Chief Minister, Narendra Modi, giving him a rating higher than its powerful MP for Gandhinagar, L K Advani.

While Modi has a good rating as a leader, the majority acknowledge that, fearful Modi’s ‘no balls’ and ‘wides’, many persons who are voting against the Chief Minister may be too scared to say so.

The Narmada dam is a subject that has united the Gujaratis for several decades and all governments have sought to bring the waters of the Narmada to Gujarat. When asked to allocate credit for bringing the Narmada waters to Gujarat, there is an overwhelming view that the credit must go to the BJP.

• Survey conducted by AC Nielsen