Rediscovering France

That there’s a much larger world beyond the US President’s current obsessionwith Kashmir and the “dangerous fragility” of the situation in South Asia.Vedrine’s France, on the other hand, is being “rediscovered” by New Delhi,at least since the Pokharan tests in May 1998, when Paris was the onlyWestern power to react with minimal criticism. The US Secretary of StateMadeleine Albright, India remembers, had in colourful contrast described NewDelhi as having “dug itself into a hole,” a phrase that her deputy StrobeTalbott has since striven hard to transform into manageable diplomatese.

In the last two years, then, the Indo-French relationship has steadily grownto encompass areas from aids to water, as well as a defence relationshipthat goes beyond a “buyer-seller” syndrome. The visit by Defence ministerGeorge Fernandes in mid-1998 to Paris established the bottomline that Indiawould be interested in pursuing a long-term defence relationship withFrance, if Paris would in turn commit itself to being a stable and reliablepartner.

Government sources say they are not unduly upset by the recent delivery ofthree French Agosta-B class submarines to Islamabad, in pursuance of an old1988 contract nor a few other fighter aircraft. Since Kargil, however, NewDelhi has made it clear that Paris will have to make a “strategic choice”on the sale of defence equipment in the subcontinent.

Things have obviously moved ahead, what with Vedrine telling a newspaperthis week that France would be willing to explore cooperation on civiliannuclear technology to India, if New Delhi could show courage and sign theCTBT as well as the fissile material convention. Vedrine’s statements maywell be the first indication that the mutually eternal vows of the nuclearclub that nuclear technology can only be sold to recipient countries whoaccept fullscope safeguards may be fraying at the seams.

Implicit in the French foreign minister’s comments is the acknowledgementthat while India may not be a member of the nuclear-five, the fact that itis a nuclear weapon power cannot be wished away.

To be sure, France will have to work its way around the Nuclear SuppliersGroup a key member of which is the US before any such nuclear technologysupplies can begin. Nor is Paris likely to very soon dare to cross the“lakshman rekha” circumscribed by Washington after it so successfullydismantled the Soviet Union in end-1991. But the fact that the US openlyflaunts its sole superpower status grates on French and Indian nerves,since both these nations themselves have aspirations to at least being thedominant power in their respective regions.

Cooperation in nuclear safety with Paris could be a start, something Indiaand the US had themselves set out to do, when the nuclear tests put a stopto that. The interesting thing is that the French are finally willing totake the covers off a subject brought up by none other than PresidentJacques Chirac during his visit here two days ago.

Russia has been the only other country in this post-Cold War decade to evenfeebly challenge the rules of the new world order imposed by the US. It’s anopen secret that on the eve of cancelling a contract to supply spacetechnology to India in 1993, Russian scientists had already transferred mostof the technology wanted by ISRO. Later, Moscow invoked a 1988 agreement tocontract two civilian nuclear power plants at Kudankulam in Tamil Nadu,arguing that it predated the NSG regime of 1992. Washington did not minceits unhappiness, but Moscow nevertheless went ahead if only because thedeal would give it the much-needed hard cash to plough into its economy.

In contrast, the Americans seem to have decided not even to entertain thethought of selling dual-use technology to India, because US analysts say,that would be “dangerous” in the currently “fragile” South Asiansituation. US Energy secretary Bill Richardson dismissed the thought in somany words during his trip to the Capital some months ago, saying Washingtonwas intending to focus instead on non-conventional energies.

Clearly, Vedrine’s trip to India this week topping a week of the Frenchinvasion of Delhi is significant, not because of any pathbreakingagreements Paris and New Delhi are about to undertake, but because France’ssupport allows the Indian foreign office greater manoeuvrable space in theinternational order. Russia’s acting president Vladimir Putin has alreadyindicated that Moscow can continue to be counted as an ally. But Russia’seconomy continues to be in a shambles, and moreover, Moscow needs time toput its own house in order.

France’s value lies in the fact that in the post-Cold War world it is thefirst western power to support Indian ambitions. Not for nothing, though,have the French been known as the masters of realpolitik. French observerspoint out that it takes at least two sides to cut a deal and that Parisexpects New Delhi to substantially return the compliment for all the effortit has undertaken so far. Such as, an Indian decision to buy made-in-FranceAirbus civilian planes made in France, rather than US-manufactured Boeingaircraft.

So who will New Delhi plug for? In the answer will lie the seeds of India’sown view of the new world order.