Reason after retreat

After a deafening ``who is in control in Pakistan?'' chorus, Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif's address to his nation on Monday was clearly as...

After a deafening “who is in control in Pakistan?” chorus, Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif’s address to his nation on Monday was clearly as much an attempt to resoundingly settle the issue internationally as to muster domestic opinion for his Kargil retreat.

He may be dictated by strategic and economic compulsions. His sober words of peace may inspire little trust in Lutyen’s Delhi after the misadventure on the Line of Control. However, his success thus far in effecting a military withdrawal and his renewed offer of bilateral talks could define in part the subcontinent’s post-Kargil road map. Indeed, India will have to ascertain whether Sharif’s deeds match his words before framing a definite response; but for all the talk of perfidy and betrayal, it will have to ask itself whether there is any option but to constructively engage Islamabad in talks.

Caution and patience must temper aggressive triumphalism.Predictable rhetoric aside, there are three key elements in Sharif’s address. One, while inviting PrimeMinister Atal Behari Vajpayee for face-to-face talks, he explicitly noted that since Kashmir is now a nuclear flashpoint, he kept in regular touch with his Indian counterpart.

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This offers the sliver of hope that, the Kargil detour notwithstanding, the spirit of Lahore is not dead and that back-channel diplomacy is alive and well. Second, his statement that “the road to Kargil does not lead to Srinagar” seeks to hush extremist criticism of his humble turnabout. In fact, the mullah-military nexus is now as much a threat to Pakistan’s democratically elected government as it is to India’s efforts at normalisation in the Valley.

For now that India has fought off the challenge, what weapons will Sharif employ? Third, he has endorsed the diplomacy route by asking, “for how long will we snatch food from our people and buy guns?” By giving economic exigencies priority over military misadventurism and thereby sending an unambiguous signal to Washington, Sharif has introduced a moderate tenor rarely witnessedamong Pakistani leaders in their dealings with India.

What does all this portend? Sharif seeks talks, but even if the withdrawal is smoothly executed, they can hardly be held till an elected government is in place in mid-October. On the other hand, he claims that the "mujahideen" have successfully internationalised the Kashmir issue. Whether his people will be satisfied with this consolation prize is difficult to predict.

However, in New Delhi, any mention of the `I’ word will conjure old phantoms. This would be a mistake. Global goodwill on Kargil may not translate into support on Kashmir, but now that Kargil has made Kashmir synonymous with nuclear flashpoint, the so-called international mainstream seems to be wary of any redrawing of borders. This is definitely closer to India’s stand than to Pakistan’s. It is not clear whether Pakistan has come to grips with the new scenario, but New Delhi would do well to reassess the changed situation and work out its future trajectory.