The security environment for Pakistan is becoming increasingly aggravated, both externally and internally. Externally, the Israeli attack on Syria has clearly shown the fallout of the US doctrine of pre-emption. Soon it will be difficult to distinguish it from state terrorism. And the US refusal to condemn Israel’s aggression (for once Mr Blair’s government resisted the urge to follow the American lead!) against Syria clearly shows that the US is sanctioning local bullies to reign supreme as long as they are perceived as its allies. How does this impact Pakistan? Most directly it shows that states like Israel and India will now use unprovoked strikes on their neighbours, with the US giving a tacit understanding for such action. Israel’s refusal to accommodate Palestinian legitimate rights and its growing frustration over its unsuccessful violent policy against the Palestinians has finally led it to expand its military action and attack its neighbouring sovereign state Syria. And the US acquiescence to this act of naked aggression has emboldened Israel to begin attacking along Lebanon’s border also. As the US becomes increasingly frustrated in its endeavour to stamp out Al-Qaeda and in its inability to bring peace and stability to Afghanistan, we may see efforts at hot pursuit increasing along the Durand Line; and if the BJP suffers political losses in forthcoming elections and becomes even more frustrated, it is not beyond the realm of the possible that they may strike at AJK or even along the international border with Pakistan in an effort to regain political support domestically while settling scores with Pakistan also. After all, if the Israeli action against Syria is not condemned and Israel made to pay, who is to stop other US allies like India from taking similar aggressive action against its neighbours? So Pakistan may become the whipping boy for frustrated major powers and large neighbours. Also, under the present situation, especially Israel’s expanding military aggression in the neighbourhood, it would make no sense at all for Pakistan to send its forces to Iraq — especially since the new US draft resolution has made no modifications in the request for international forces. Beyond this, the Syrian inability to do much in response to the Israeli attack shows the bankruptcy of the Muslim states in terms of options to defend their interests and even sovereignty. The OIC’s total irrelevance in its present form has once again been highlighted. Syria has been attacked, Lebanon is now being targeted and Iran is under siege on the WMD issue — and what has the OIC collectivity been able to do in defence of these states? Absolutely nothing. Worse still, for the first time leaders of states that have oppressed Muslim minorities are being invited to the Kuala Lumpur OIC Summit as Observers — Russia and the Philippines. Given that India has a much larger oppressed Muslim minority, Pakistan should be prepared to see India pushing its way into the OIC. Already, India is expanding its influence in the Gulf and has become a full dialogue partner in the GCC, alongside the US and Japan. And India is already active in Afghanistan, Central Asia and increasingly in Iran also. In Southeast Asia, India is increasing its interaction with ASEAN while ensuring that Pakistan is kept out. Indian proactivism is in sharp contrast to Pakistan, which continues to focus almost solely on the US. Opportunities in the neighbourhood go unnoticed or ignored as we look to keep the US appeased even as its officials launch into diatribes against Pakistan — retracting some of them much later when the damage has already been done, or when they finally feel that Pakistan has had enough and will not tolerate more abuse. Even at the micro level, individual Pakistanis continue to be harassed and abused by US officials, with no reciprocity in such treatment being meted out to Americans visiting Pakistan. Nor much in the way of strong protest either. Why? Meanwhile, the US continues to hold an increasing number of military exercises with India in Pakistan’s neighbourhood. Given the conflictual situation that prevails in South Asia, America’s exercises with Special Forces in Ladakh and with a nuclear submarine in the Arabian Sea can only send negative signals to Pakistan. All in all, US policies in the Middle-East and Afghanistan and its support of Israel and India have had a direct, negative impact on Pakistan’s external security calculations making it even more critical to strengthen the nuclear deterrence and conventional offensive capabilities. However, the more immediate threat may well be from internal developments, with the resurfacing of sectarian violence and killings. The militarisation of civil society has seen violence and killings dominate political debate and rivalries. It seems as if no government — civil or military — can take concrete steps that will truly destroy the foundations of the terrorism confronting our domestic polity. We know the threat and where it comes from and all manner of laws and special courts have been set up but the effectiveness is obviously not there — nor is the deterrence. Nor is it just political conflicts and rivalries that have seen violence. The sectarian killings are the most public and debilitating because they strike at the core of our Islamic identity. Whether it is domestic violence or youngsters seeking ego salvation, the gun comes increasingly into play. For instance, only a few weeks ago, a young man, who had some years earlier fired wildly at a private party and managed to evade punishment, fired at a young girl and her brother at the opening of a new restaurant in Islamabad. Once again the boy got away with it (incidentally he has US nationality) despite everyone knowing who he was! If extremism is the culprit, then this extremism has pervaded our civil society at all levels and is not restricted simply to the religious domain. There is simply no respect for the law of the land. Add to that a violent intolerance of differences and the mix is lethal. We have truly developed a most disastrous psyche: We are quite prepared to accept being abused and taken advantage of by outsiders, but are not prepared to even accept different opinions or values amongst each other. (The writer is Director General, Institute of Strategic Studies, Islamabad) (The News)
