Pak polls looming, all eyes on Army chief

Kayani had better be every bit that smart — and lucky, too. He’s been tasked with one of the toughest, most urgent military assignments in the world: reforming Pakistan’s armed forces and rescuing the country itself from possible collapse. Unless the 55-year-old four-star general can do that, and quickly, the official outcome in next week’s parliamentary elections could be beside the point. The long dictatorship of Gen Pervez Musharraf has left the Army widely distrusted and deeply demoralised, while armed allies of al-Qaeda rampage in the countryside and suicide bombers terrorise the cities. Since taking over as chief of Army staff less than three months ago, Kayani has raced to undo the damage. “He’s by far the best officer I’ve come across in the Pakistani Army,” says a Western military official in Islamabad with experience on both sides of the Afghan-Pakistani border. But will the best be good enough?

“No matter how progressive and capable he is, that doesn’t mean he can turn everything around in the time allotted to him,” adds the official, who is not authorised to be quoted by name. “He’s dealing with an institution that is a proverbial dinosaur, and very resistant to change.”

Kayani could face an even bigger challenge in the wake of the February 18 vote. He has sworn from the start to get the military out of politics, and he’s made no exceptions for soldiers and officers assigned to the powerful Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) and Military Intelligence (MI) agencies. Unauthorised contact with any politician is now a firing offence, and troops this Election Day are to do nothing at the polls beyond keeping them secure. Even so, just about everyone in Pakistan is bracing for the possibility of widespread violence. Opposition candidates are already crying foul, complaining especially that the Interior Ministry’s Intelligence Bureau (IB) and its paramilitary Rangers are intimidating candidates and planning to meddle with the polls. “The IB is much more dangerous than the MI or ISI,” says Samina Ahmed, the South Asia director of the International Crisis Group. “The IB works more closely with local police and knows the administration and the local players.””

The fears are compounded by the threat of further terrorist attacks. “There is a strong feeling within the military that there will be an aftermath of violence no matter who wins,” says the Western military official. “The big question is, how will Kayani and the Army deal with that, if it happens.” No one knows the answer. Despite his order for the Army to withdraw from politics, Kayani has never explicitly said he wouldn’t order his forces to crush civil unrest if it threatened Musharraf’s presidency. And if Kayani did issue such an order? “Would the Army do it?” says his longtime Army friend. “Yes, in my view. But it would be very distasteful.”