On his seventh trip to New Delhi in as many years, Russian defence minister Sergei Ivanov’s agenda this time round couldn’t be more crucial, both commercially and strategically, to Moscow. With its monopoly of the Indian weapons market steeply threatened, and New Delhi on the threshold of purchasing billions of dollars worth of new generation weapons, it’s a do-or-die state for the post-Cold War Russian military complex. In India for a week, beginning today, for the sixth inter-governmental commission meeting on military cooperation on Wednesday and to be part of President Vladimir Putin’s entourage on Republic Day, Ivanov’s visit will principally aim to do a quick round of negotiations, followed by efforts to compete with Washington’s hardsell of its own weapons and systems. Apart from discussions on the S-300 anti-missile defence system and existing defence contracts — including numerous upgrade programmes for the MiG-29 fleet, engines for Lakshya remotely piloted vehicles — the delegation-level meeting on Wednesday is likely to push substantially ahead with the fifth generation fighter joint programme that the two countries have been talking about for over six years. Another deal highly likely to enter its final phase during Ivanov’s visit is the multirole transport aircraft (MTA). Ivanov will also, of course, make a pitch for MiG-35 fighter for an upcoming Indian purchase of 126 fighters — the purchase could well be a do or die commercial situation for manufacturer RAC-MiG. Sources said Moscow’s offer of transferring technology to build Amur-class attack submarines to supplement the first Scorpene line and the leasing of a pair of Akula nuclear submarines as test beds for India’s Advanced Technology Vessel (ATV) programme (including Russian assistance in resolving new technological roadblocks), would also come up at the meetings this week. Other issues on the anvil include a compressed delivery schedule for semi-knocked down kits on the over 300 T-90 tanks to be delivered by Russia for the armoured corps, an order for three follow-on Krivak-class stealth frigates, 80 new generation Kazan Mi-17 medium lift helicopters for the air force, An official South Block guidance suggests that Indo-Russian defence business could touch $20 billion by 2012.
