Never was a farce enacted for the entertainment of so many by so few. “Then he goes on to quote the well-known observation that history would have taken an entirely different course had Cleopatra’s nose been somewhat shorter.” This is a quote Prakash Karat will recognise. It is from Georgi Plekhanov’s (1856-1918) “The Role of the Individual in History”. A senior UPA minister once remarked, Prakash Karat is a communist, Harkishan Singh Surjeet is a politician. Had they known, both Karat and Surjeet would probably have been flattered, noting that “dealer” is an anagram of “leader”. July 22 is not a very significant date in world history. Cleveland (Ohio) was founded, Wiley Post became the first person to fly solo around the world, Saddam Hussein’s sons were killed, John Dillinger was shot, Gregor Mendel was born and Walter Morrison obtained a patent for a “flying toy” that would be the Frisbee. But in India, all eyes are on July 22, 2008, in what is reminiscent of a Twenty20 game. Whatever transpires, India will keep debating the “what if” of individual quirks and chance events in influencing, if not determining, history. What if Surjeet and Jyoti Basu had been younger and healthier? What if the CPM hadn’t committed a historic blunder in 1996? What if the PM had not granted that ill-fated interview to The Telegraph in August 2007? What if Karat and Bardhan had been made to sign the Official Secrets Act and shown the safeguards agreement? What if the nuclear deal had been projected as an international agreement rather than an India-US one? What if the SP had been invited to the high table dinner in 2004? What if Amar Singh had shown less logorrhoea in demanding windfall profit tax for oil companies in advance? What if a new petroleum secretary had been named a few days later, after July 22? What if Shibu Soren had been brought back as coal minister in August 2007? What if Ajit Singh had been persuaded to remain with the Congress in 1996? What if the RLD had become part of the UPA and been offered cabinet posts in 2004? In allocating ministerial posts, the UPA has done worse. What if Lucknow airport had been named after Charan Singh earlier? What if the JD(S) had become part of the UPA? What if Kuldeep Bishnoi had not been suspended from the Congress? What if the Congress had been more forthcoming in support of a Telangana state? What if the nuclear deal hadn’t been branded as anti-Muslim and raised red flags for the AIMIM and the Muslim League? Etymologically, the word “coalition” means growing together. Whether one grows together or sinks together is anyone’s guess, since in everyday usage, a coalition is always a temporary alliance. Most interestingly, a side-meaning of the word “coalition” is a group of male lions that collectively drive off other male lions to mate with the females. Hence, one negotiates about ministerial berths, monetary payments, whether Ladakh can become a UT, winning back rebel Congress MPs from UP, Karnataka and Tamil Nadu (Bishnoi from Haryana isn’t the only one), Somnath Chatterjee’s continuation as speaker (then he doesn’t vote) and other blandishments that aren’t in the public domain. For those thus cultivated, there is an understandable calculation and trade-off. Elections are inevitable. If not today, nine months down the line. If the government continues and elections aren’t immediate, the timeline is more like six months. Are temporary (nine or six months) or one-off carrots sufficient compensation for possible electoral losses consequent to support on the nuclear deal? Public memory is short, but it isn’t that short. Siding with the UPA is also tantamount to endorsing what is perceived to be an aftermath of the UPA’s economic policies, inflation. Since this is an added negative, the price demanded could be higher. And to reinforce the point made earlier, the price demanded would have been lower not only in 2004, but also at any earlier point when there hadn’t been a crisis that increased incremental value of every vote. Look at it this way. The Congress leadership has been proved wrong on numbers in 1999. The euphoria about having numbers on July 7 was also premature. Is there some imagery in the PM making that statement on board an aircraft, 35,000 ft above the ground? On the ground, the vote is headed for a photo finish, with JMM, RLD, JD(S), NC, AIMIM, rebel Congress MPs and assorted Independents determining the outcome. Four issues emerge.First, in so far as offering carrots is concerned, there is a trade-off between the UPA’s survival instincts and future electoral prospects in the states. (Incidentally, over-consumption of carrots leads to hypercarotenemia, when the skin turns orange-red, a phenomenon witnessed between May 2004 and July 7, 2008). Is the Congress failing to recognise that it is now a party of the north and west and, therefore, might as well give up UP as a lost cause? Second, is there a question of inner-party democracy and decision-making within the Congress? Why else are there splinter groups and rebels, sometimes masquerading as independents? Third, coalition politics requires skills of the wheeler-dealer kind. On the face of it, the Congress has always had mastery over this art and it can be no one’s case that the party’s senior management lacks these skills. However, the party is being outsmarted and outflanked. Is there a skill vacuum in very senior management, as opposed to senior management? Fourth, given that skill vacuum, shouldn’t elections have been called in August 2007 or on July 7, 2008? How are elections nine months from today preferable to elections three months from today? Almost certainly, inflation numbers will be more respectable nine months down the line. However, no one believes those official inflation figures and there is a perception versus reality mismatch.And also certainly, growth numbers will be less respectable nine months down the line. A moral high ground on something like the nuclear deal and perceived proximity to the US may not have yielded much electoral dividend. But it would have been preferable to the stench and mess that emanate from the unprincipled low ground. Remember Coleridge’s “Cologne”? “I counted two and seventy stenches.” The UPA is counting two hundred and seventy-one.The writer is a noted economist express@expressindia.com
