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Journalism of Courage
After the completion of the nuclear negotiations with the US, the UPA government8217;s attention now turns to China8217;s opposition to three decades of global nuclear blockade against India. As New Delhi prepares for the next steps in implementing the nuclear deal 8212; the drafting of an India-specific safeguards agreement with the International Atomic Energy Agency and the endorsement of the Nuclear Suppliers Group, Beijing will loom large over India8217;s diplomacy.
The 35 member board of governors of the IAEA, which must approve the special safeguards agreement with India and the 45-nation NSG, which must support the Indo-US nuclear deal, usually arrive at decisions on the basis of a consensus. China, a member of both bodies, will have a say in letting the international community resume civilian nuclear cooperation with India.
Parity for Pakistan
China8217;s emphasis on 8220;principled criteria8221; for any changes in the global non-proliferation regime will be seen by New Delhi as a barely disguised attempt to get Pakistan the same benefits that India is about to gain from the nuclear agreement with the US. While the US has unambiguously rejected pleas from Pakistan for a nuclear deal, some gullible Europeans appear to have bought Beijing8217;s line on 8220;universal criteria8221;. Meanwhile, China has completed negotiations with Pakistan to supply additional nuclear reactors. That agreement will have no international legitimacy until the US and the NSG offer a nuclear exception of the kind that is being processed for India.
China8217;s objective appears to be simple. If Pakistan does not get the right for civilian nuclear cooperation, India should also be denied that opportunity.
Indian backlash
New Delhi, however, is not impressed with China8217;s arguments. India8217;s foreign policy mandarins smirk at China8217;s new 8220;principled concern8221; for the global non-proliferation regime. After all, China has for long been one of the main proliferators of nuclear and missile technology.
China might bet that it has nothing to lose from this campaign, so long as the Europeans and other 8220;white knights8221; like New Zealand dance on its behalf in the NSG. For New Delhi, continued Chinese opposition to the Indo-US deal would only confirm the thesis that Beijing is determined to perpetuate 8220;nuclear parity8221; between India and Pakistan.
If China prevents India8217;s access to civilian nuclear cooperation after having transferred nuclear weapons and missile technology to Pakistan, it would invite a strong popular backlash from India.
New Delhi is too proud to plead with Beijing to end its covert and overt opposition to the nuclear deal. India, however, hopes that China understands the consequences of preventing India from taking its rightful place in the global nuclear order and will not come in the way.
A role for CPM?
If there is one force that could help prevent a needless crisis in Sino-Indian relations, it is the CPM. During her tenure as PM, Indira Gandhi was very adept at using the CPI to send messages to the Kremlin. Would the UPA government consider a similar strategy with the CPM?
The Left parties have made a big issue of India8217;s foreign policy autonomy in the debate on the nuclear agreement with the US. They will soon have to come to terms with the reality that while the US is seeking a revision of the global nuclear order to accommodate India, Beijing is coming in the way.
The Left will also have to recognise that after China scuttled India8217;s campaign for a permanent seat in the United Nations
Security Council, marginalised India from the Asian institution building, and refused to back India8217;s recent bid for Asian Games, New Delhi is increasingly sceptical of the prospects for political cooperation with Beijing. If the CPM is serious about promoting Sino-Indian relations, it should launch a political effort to get Beijing8217;s support for the Indo-US nuclear deal.
The writer is a professor at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore
