Four large states are going to polls on May 5. The national projection in this article is based on a three-fold aggregation. For seats that have already been voted, the projection is based on exit polls. For seats that go to polls on May 5, the projection is derived from the opinion poll conducted between April 16 and April 27. For the seats that go to polls on May 10, the projection is based on the opinion poll completed mid-March. The leadership stakes Through the three phases of voting, Prime Minister A.B. Vajpayee clearly stands out as the tallest leader in the country — with almost 95 per cent of the respondents in Phase III rating him a good leader. With Phase III including fieldwork in traditional BJP strongholds of Rajasthan and MP, and parts of UP and Bihar, Deputy Prime Minister L.K. Advani’s rating has recorded a sharp increase and he is marginally ahead of Sonia Gandhi. The real shocker for the phase — Rahul and Priyanka Gandhi have left behind their mother, Sonia, and Advani in the ‘‘good leader’’ polls . Vote say on PM • Mulayam Singh Yadav, Mayawati, Laloo Prasad Yadav and Sharad Pawar are eyeing 10 Race Course Road. The third phase of opinion polls was conducted entirely in the Hindi belt and all three north Indian contenders have done worse in their home states this time than in the previous phase, particularly Mulayam and Mayawati. An ominous sign for both leaders as 48 of the 80 seats in UP still have to go to the polls. On Phase I seats, Rahul had established a marginal lead over his sister as ‘‘better liked’’ by voters though observers found him a shy, political novice. Rahul ruled through Phase II and Phase III as well, but his lead over Priyanka has come down to less than 5 pc. Dynasty rules Most political ‘‘dynasties’’ are entrenched in north Indian states where the latest opinion polls have been conducted. This probably explains the increasing preference among voters for dynasties. The approval rating for dynasties has climbed from 58 per cent in Phase I to 65 per cent in Phase III. Across the Congress, there has been a clamour for Priyanka’s entry into the electoral fray but she has opted to restrict her political activity to campaigning. The latest opinion poll shows her appeal is much greater in the Hindi heartland than elsewhere in the country. From a low of 60 per cent in Phase I, Phase III shows an overwhelming 74 per cent of voters wanting her to enter the fray. Party vs candidate In all major parliamentary democracies, there are a few intrepid independents who command respect across party lines. The Lok Sabha has had its share of such independents in the past but the party seems to rule now. Over the past few decades, with rising election expenses, large party machines, increasing use of muscle power and the imperative of caste combinations, independents have disappeared from the electoral scene. Nowhere are these factors more stark than in the Hindi belt. When asked whether they voted for the candidate or the party, a hefty two-thirds said they voted for the party, a much higher proportion than in the earlier two phases. No vote for politics North Indian politicians are in a class of their own — at least so their electors believe. When asked whether people enter politics to serve the nation or themselves, the electorate is clearly of the view that pet puja takes precedence over desh puja. Fieldwork by AC Nielson
