Narayanan almost out, all else in

• Two, there is rethinking on the move to instal Farooq Abdullah as vice president.

• Three, the idea of fielding P C Alexander for President has not entirely been given up by some in the ruling party though he cannot be a consensus candidate as the Congress has reacted coldly to it.

There’s a group within the BJP which is pressing for a contest now that its alliance with the BSP has come through. But the figures of the electoral college with the Election Commission of India show the two sides are so evenly balanced (see chart) that the ruling group is not likely to risk a contest.

The top priority of the BJP, therefore, is likely to try for a consensus, and this would mean that it may be someone who is the least unacceptable, rather than someone who is most acceptable to either side, who might ride into Rashtrapati Bhavan in July through a process of elimination. Therefore, the chances of Krishan Kant have increased as the incumbent vice president.

• Four, and this comes out quite clearly through the figures, the TDP holds the balance in the presidential contest.

The NDA, its allies and the smaller parties expected to support it—this includes the BSP which has already lent the BJP its support in the presidential and vice presidential poll, and even the AIADMK, which has not yet opened its cards—add up to around 52% of the total vote.

The Opposition parties total around 48%. The TDP has 5% of the votes, and if it were to switch sides, the candidate backed by the ruling combine would be in trouble. By walking out of the Lok Sabha in the vote over Gujarat, the TDP has tried to distance itself from the BJP—and it will remain an unpredictable ally unless the BJP decides to dump Narendra Modi.

K R Narayanan’s message to the people expressing anguish over Gujarat raised eyebrows in political circles because it came on the eve of the censure motion against the Government which embarrassed it. Political circles are decoding this to mean that Narayanan is no longer in the race for a second term.

While the Congress and the Left were inclined to continue with him at one stage, the ruling group has not been so forthcoming, though at one point the PM had reportedly not been averse to the idea. But with the PM not having broached the subject with the President so far and the presidential notification expected in the first week of June, the writing on the wall is clearer.

Other parties have also been getting second thoughts about repeating the President, given his ill health. He had to cancel his trip to Ireland and Sweden. He did not attend the function to celebrate Chandra Shekhar’s 75th birthday.

The ruling party brass sounded out Farooq Abdullah for Vice President, and according to sources close to him, ‘‘the negotiations were in an advanced stage.’’ But the Tuesday debate, in which the National Conference abstained, has made that possibility remote.

A new name that has cropped up in the list of probables for Vice President is that of Viren Shah, Governor of West Bengal. Indira Gandhi often said about selection of candidates: ‘‘Those first in, tend to go out first,’’ because they get exposed and pressure starts to build up against them.